Monday Bowl Games

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Some top plays today for college football so I wanted to get them out early—make sure to check out Oggie’s write-ups too we are on the same page for most of these and his information backs mine up.

Three Unit: Air Force +4.5
This line is going up and it’s because the academy’s always get looked past in favor of the more well known schools. Cal has been in a freefall for the second half of the season and has no desire to play in this game. Not only will Air Force keep this within the number a play on the money line is warranted.


When California team played as a Home team - Last 5 years - Allowed 20 points or more AGAINST in their last game - Coming off a 1 under they are 3-7-1 ATS

Air Force:7-1 ATS off a straight up win13-3 ATS away playing with 2+ weeks restCalifornia:0-7 ATS off BB conference games2-10 ATS off a straight up loss

Two Unit: Oregon / South Florida Under 52.5

This game is going to feature a slow paced defensive lead game. Oregon’s hopes went right down the toilet with Dixon and since then they have had no answer on offense and its not going to get better against this Bulls defense. They are ball hawkers and are quick to the ball and should stack nicely and force the Ducks with blitzes. South Florida has a ball control offense led by the running game and that will keep this at a low scoring pace.

South Florida:9-2 Under after winning 2 of their last 3 games5-1 Under off BB conference wins

One Units:

Fresno St. +6

Fresno is underrated and Coach Hill always has them playing well in bowl games. GT does not want to go to Boise and will get caught napping here.

Georgia Tech:1-9 ATS off BB Overs1-5 ATS off a home game

Indiana +5
IU is making waves in the Big Ten and they will for years to come. They may not win this game but look for them to keep it close. This team will dictate this game and the season to Terry Hoeppner and will show up with more emtion and win this game.

Florida St. Kentucky
Not touching this game.

Lost my only four unit bowl selection of the year but back again to try another one.
Four Unit: Clemson -2.5
Clemson was a double digit favorite last year in a bowl game and let with a loss and will not forget that as a small favorite this year against Auburn. I have been on the Clemson bandwagon all year and it won’t change for me in this game.

When Auburn team played as Road team as a Underdog - Playing on grass surface - Coming off a Win over Southeastern win opponent - Coming off a 1 under they are 3-8 ATS

Saturday Early Game

Uconn +2

Wake is a talented team but I am looking to rebound with Huskies playing in a big game with a spirited offense that matches up well.
When Connecticut team played as a Road team - Playing on Saturday - Coming off 1 ATS lost they are 10-2 ATS
When Wake Forest team played as a Home team - Playing on Saturday - Allowed 14 - 21 AGAINST in their last game they are 1-10 ATS

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Friday bowl games

Friday Bowl Games

Michigan St / Boston College

I love this game and circled it when the lines were first announced. These teams are stacked on the offensive side of the ball and you are sure to see some fireworks. Matt Ryan will be displaying his ability for all of the scouts for the NFL and passing will be first on the list at BC, but don’t sell short the Spartan offense. They averaged over 34 points a game and they have talent at wide out and QB as well as a two headed attack in the backfield. Michigan St had some academic issues and five players will not be suiting up for the big game, but the spots on offense they left void can be filled. They did lose a stud on defense but that helps for my situation that I will play in this game.

My first FOUR UNIT of the Bowl Season is OVER 56
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Trends to support: When Michigan State team played as Road team as a Underdog - After a division game - Coming off a Win over Big Ten opponent the over is 10-1-1

When Michigan State team played as a Road team - Last 4 years - Coming off a Win over Big Ten opponent the over is 10-2


When Boston College team played as Home team as a Favorite - Vs Non Division Opponent the over is 15-8

Look for Michigan St to attack BC through the air to open up the ground game and if they score early BC could lose outright.
One Unit: Michigan St. +5

Houston Vs TCU


One Unit: Houston +6 BET IT HERE!

This line is dead on but I lean with the Cougars here and its due to the matchups they posses and the week of practice they had leading up this game. Don’t go crazy with this one, but it should be fun to watch.



When Texas Christian team played as Road team as a Favorite - Vs Non Division Opponent - Allowed 34 points or less AGAINST in their last game they are 3-7 ATS

When Houston team played as a Home team - Playing on artificial surface - Coming off a win on artificial they are 10-5 ATS

Maryland Vs Oregon St.

Three Unit: Maryland +5
One Unit: Maryland +175 BET IT HERE!

Maryland returns the full compliments at offensive line and will be fully manned up front for the game against the Beavers. The offense finally got on the field for the last three games of the season and they responded by averaging over 400 yards per game in that run to include the upset of BC. The terps have had a great recent history and they know how to prepare for the big game and the defense has had a great practice leading up to this game. Oregon St is upset with the placement in this bowl and will get caught napping.

When Maryland played as Home or Away Team- With Total between 47.5 and 51 they are 13-5 ATS

When Maryland played as Home or Away Team- With a Spread between 4 and 7.5 they are 14-6 ATS

Las Vegas Bowl

UCLA +6.5-102
UCLA +220

All of the talk surround this game is how UCLA is going to get trounced. BYU has revenge and UCLA is in a state of flux but look closer. BYU does not like this game and is not looking forward to playing it and this is the perfect spot for the upset. BYU has played in this game three straight years and feel like they should have gotten a better bowl in a better opponent. Because of this they have had a negative approach to preparing for this game and will bet bitten by a UCLA team looking to prove their worth.

UCLA:9-1 ATS as an underdog8-1 ATS off a conference loss

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New Orleans Bowl

New Orleans, LA
Friday December 21st, 8:00 EST


Florida Atlantic vs. Memphis



This is the first bowl game for Florida Atlantic and they are penciled in as 3.5 point favorites. Both of these teams will be sure to put on a good show but I give the edge to the Tigers with the advantages at wide outs and on defense. This should be a close one and therefore I am taking the points!

Memphis +3.5

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Bowl Information and FREE Money!

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Heisman: DMAC Darren McFadden +600

BCS College Bowl Contest

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Championship Saturday

NCAAF
One unit
Missouri +3

Two units:
Tennessee +7

Three Units:
Arizona +7

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ESPN Game Tonight

Tonight

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NCAA
Four Unit: Louisville -2.5

Rutgers is d-o-n-e and will pack in the tent and Louisville will blow the doors off the Knights in this game and it will not even be close!
When Louisville played as Home Team- in the month of November is 8-2 ATS

When Rutgers played as Road Team- in the month of November they are 5-13-1 ATS
Louisville: 10-1 ATS off BB Overs

Saturday Selections

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Early NCAA Games

Check the reply(s) for write-ups if I have time, with so many plays I want to get them posted.



One unit:

Miami +14 Over Boston College

Kansas -1 over Missouri

UCONN +20 over West Virginia





Two Units:


Georgia Tech +4 over Georgia

South Carolina +3 over Clemson


Three Units:

Virginia +3 over Virginia Tech

Florida St. +14 over Florida







Four Units:

Utah +4.5 over BYU

Kentucky +3 over Tennessee


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Friday Football!

Arkansas +13.5

If D-Mac and the Hogs want to salvage a mediocre season a win against LSU will go a long way! The Razorbacks are 4-1 SU & ATS in their L5 games and would like nothing better than to spoil their rivals’ title hopes. LSU is 0-5-1 ATS in its L6 SEC games. Arkansas is 14-4 ATS off a combined score of 70+ points and LSU is 7-21 ATS at home in November. The duo of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones leads the SEC in rushing and has made life uncomfortable for LSU the last two seasons, as the Tigers have pulled out narrow victories. This series was thrown together as a season ending contest when Arkansas joined the SEC. LSU has always had the better teams, but much like this season has not played like it accounting for in part why the home team is 1-5 ATS. The Hogs are 16-7 ATS as dogs of 10.5-21 and LSU is 6-15 ATS against conference opponents. The Hogs will keep this one close and will have a shot for the straight up victory late.

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Turkey College Football

Turkey Day College Football

The loss last week by Oregon opened some eyes for the teams in this game. They now have a chance to make a run for the title and the rose bowl so that makes for an interesting game tonight and motivation for the Sun Devils. USC has disappointed this year and not played up to the standards but can save face with a big win here.

The time off has helped both teams and the injuries that the QB’s will be ready for the game tonight and the Sun Devils playing for a share of the Pac 10 title will get it!

Arizona +3


Trends:

Arizona is 12-6 ATS at home in the L18
Arizona State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following an ATS loss.
USC: 0-6 ATS away off BB wins
Arizona State: 16-5 ATS at home off a road win

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NCAA Saturday Picks

NCAA Picks

One unit

Boston College +8.5

The Eagles are reeling and Clemson controls their own destiny but this game looks to me to be much closer than 8.5 points with Matt Ryan. Winds in the forecast but it will still be close. Boston College has won and 'covered' its last pair with Clemson. The Eagles are 6-1 as road dogs.
When Boston College team played as a Road team - With 6 day off - Coming off a Loss over Atlantic Coast opponent they are 12-3 ATS

Two Unit:

West Virginia -6

Oregon losing opens up some mighty big doors for WV in the BCS. Since the Big 12 will be beating up on each other it gives them a shot to move way up on the list. West Virginia has won and 'covered' in its last two trips to Cincinnati. The Mountaineers are 15-4-1 as road favorites and 17-6 ATS on the Big East road. West Virginia is 8-1 ATS away off an ATS loss
When West Virginia team played as a Road team - Playing on artificial surface - During the month of November - Coming off a win on artificial they are 7-3 ATS

Three Unit

Minnesota +11.5

Wisconsin is 0-4 ATS on the road this year and the Badgers are on a 5-0 'cover' run against the Gophers. Wisconsin has faltered in nine of 10 as double-digit road chalk. The gophers have reason to play at home in the last big game. When Wisconsin team played as Road team as a Favorite - Playing on artificial surface - Coming off a Home win they are 3-7 ATS.
When Minnesota team played as a 10.0 or more Underdog - After a division game - Scored more than 10 points in back to back games they are 10-6 ATS

Four Unit

Michigan St. +2.5

They don’t always play a complete game but the Spartans have played better on the grid iron lately and for the last game at home you know they will get up for this one! The small line indicates the lines makers think so too.
Trends:
Penn State: 1-9 ATS away after allowing 6 points or lessMichigan State: 15-5 ATS at home off a conference win

When Michigan State team played as Home team as an Underdog - Playing on Saturday - Coming off a Win over Big Ten opponent they are 7-3 ATS

Saturday November 10th

Miami Hurricanes -3.5

The Last game in the orange bowl must provide the Canes with enough inspiration to win one today. The Hurricanes have always been an up and down team this year and this will be an “up” game looking to send off a great stadium and some great fans happy.

UCLA +7
This is another team that plays down to bad opposition and good to great opposition. Arizona St. is a good opponent and UCLA will try to play to their level look for a potential upset, but keep the points.

Wake Forest +9

Clemson may have an eye on the game against Boston College and will not be able to cover today’s game. The points are a bit on the high side here anyhow. Clemson should be favored by about 4-6 so the extra points will come in handy.

Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech--The Pick!

Thursday Night ESPN

For the second straight week, the Hokies of Virginia Tech will be featured on ESPN’s weekly Thursday telecast. If we learned anything by watching last week’s 14-10 loss to Boston College, it’s that playing 58 minutes of quality football won’t get it done. Especially against a rested and favored conference foe that comes in off back-to-back wins and is playing at home. That foe happens to be Georgia Tech, who looks to hand the Hokies its second consecutive Thursday defeat. The big question here is how will Virginia Tech respond after such a crushing defeat?





The answer from the oddsmakers is “not very well,” as the Hokies were installed as a 1.5 point dog. The public seems to agree, having bet the home team up to -2.5 in the first College Football game of November. By now, you know the story. Up 10-0, the Virginia Tech defense completely collapsed last week, allowing 2nd ranked Boston College to score twice in the game’s final two minutes to steal a game the Eagles had no business winning. The loss dropped Frank Beamer’s squad to 15-3 all-time on Thursday Nights. Interestingly, all three losses have come at the hands of BC. After BC scored the first time with 2:11 to play, the Eagles recovered an onside kick and won the game on Matt Ryan's 24-yard TD pass to Andre Callender with 11 seconds to go, stunning the Hokies. Sean Glennon threw an eight-yard pass to Eddie Royal for the lone - and controversial - TD for Virginia Tech (6-2, 3-1 ACC Coastal), which had won five consecutive contests since getting crushed at Louisiana State on September 8, 48-7. Glennon, who started for the first time since the loss to LSU because freshman Tyrod Taylor was injured, completed 15-of-25 passes for 149 yards without an interception. One bright spot for Virginia Tech here is that they are 7-3 in their last 10 November road games. They are also on a 12-2 run against the number in ACC road games. Last year, Virginia Tech lost to Georgia Tech, 38-27, despite 14 more first downs, running 28 more plays and pair of 100-yard games from its receiving corps.








These teams have met three times since VT joined the ACC, with the Hokies winning the first two meetings. None of the games have been close with the average margin of victory at 23 PPG. Georgia Tech (5-3, 2-3 Coastal) has not played since a 34-10 home victory over Army on October 20. In the win, the Yellow Jackets ran up 292 rushing yards. The Yellow Jackets, who have won back-to-back games since dropping three of their previous four, lost star tailback Tashard Choice to a right knee injury in the contest. He is unlikely to play Thursday. Both squads rank in the top 15 in the nation in rushing defense, so this one figures to come down to the passing games. The total is currently at 40.5.








Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, 7:45 EST ESPN


Virginia Tech: 10-2 ATS in road games


Georgia Tech: 2-11 ATS off an ATS win

PICK: VT +2.5

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VT @ Georgia Tech Thursday Night

Virginia Tech came within two minutes of upsetting No. 2 Boston College last week before Matt Ryan produced some late lightning. The Hokies will be looking for redemption and revenge when they travel to Georgia Tech for their second straight Thursday night encounter.


Virginia Tech had outscored its first four opponents last season 138-23 when it faced the Jackets at home as 9 1/2-point favorites. Georgia Tech struck early and often, jumping out to a 21-0 lead in the first 11 minutes, en route to a 39-27 upset victory.
The Jackets haven't played since a costly home victory on Oct. 20 over Army, 34-10. Leading rusher Tashard Choice and speedster Rashuan Grant were both hurt in the win over the Cadets and won't play against the Hokies.
That puts a lot of pressure on Jonathan Dwyer and Jamaal Evans, who will see the second best rush defense Georgia Tech has faced all season. The Eagles limited Tech to 63 rushing yards on Sept. 15 at Bobby Dodd Stadium en route to a 24-10 victory. Virginia Tech is ninth in the country against the run, allowing less than 90 yards per game.
Dwyer will assume the role of featured back. He has toted the ball must 10 times in the last four weeks, but he did take over when Choice exited with an injury against Virginia to gain 75 yards in 15 carries with a touchdown. Dwyer also erupted for 138 yards and a touchdown in the Jackets blowout win over outmanned Samford
Georgia Tech is 13th in the country, averaging 219 yards rushing per game, though 2/3 of those yards typically come from Choice and Grant. The Jackets have run the ball 61 percent of the time, but sophomore quarterback Taylor Bennett may have to step up if they expect to whip the Hokies.
Bennett has struggled in his first full season as a starter, completing just 51.4 percent of his passes for 1,337 yards and two touchdowns, while being picked off on three occasions. He could be in for a rough night against a stiff Virginia Tech defense that leads the ACC in sacks with 29.
Coach Frank Beamer hopes that redshirt freshman Tyrod Taylor is ready to return to action after missing last week's game with a high ankle sprain. Taylor, 5-0 as a starter, has much more mobility than Sean Glennon, a major asset against Georgia Tech. The Jackets are averaging 3.6 sacks per game, fourth in the nation.
Taylor has averaged 148 yards per game while Glennon is strictly a pocket passer and would likely be a sitting duck against Georgia Tech's fierce pass rush. Somehow the Hokies have managed to win six of eight games despite yielding 29 sacks.
The Jackets put up about 28 points per game against the Hokies 26. However, Georgia Tech has averaged almost 100 yards more offense per game.
Virginia Tech is on a 12-2 spread run on the Atlantic Coast Conference road. The Hokies have 'covered' 10 of their last dozen on the road overall and 15 of 21 versus ACC opponents. They have cashed nine of their last 11 as underdogs while the Jackets have failed at a 12-5-1 clip as favorites.

Georgia Tech has been on the low side in 17 of its last 21 Thursday tests. The Jackets have also ducked 'under' in 12 of 15 at home after winning three of their last four games.
Most offshore books opened Georgia Tech as a 1 1/2-point favorite, with the 'total' set at 42.

Ohio St. Vs Penn St.

Ohio State hasn’t lost a regular season football game in two years. Saturday night, they not only face their toughest test of the season to date, but the team that dealt them that last regular season loss. Three-point home underdog Penn State comes in having won three straight and would love nothing more than to repeat their 2005 17-10 win over the Buckeyes here in Happy Valley. To do so, the Nittany Lions must find a way to overcome the nation’s top-ranked defense.

History is on their side, however, as the home team is on a 9-0 ATS run in this series. With two easy wins already in ’07, Joe Pa’s club is on an 8-3 ATS run at home in Big Ten play. Last week, out on the road, things were more difficult in a 36-31 win over Indiana. Anthony Morelli threw two touchdowns against just one interception and Rodney Kinlaw iced the game with a five-yard TD run with just over four minutes to play for Penn State, which trailed by eight points midway through the second quarter. Ohio State, meanwhile, remained perfect on the year with a 24-17 home win over Michigan State last weekend. Chris "Beanie" Wells rushed for a career-high 221 yards and a touchdown for the Buckeyes, who did just enough to hang on after opening a 24-0 third-quarter lead. Todd Boeckman tossed two touchdowns but threw an interception that was returned for a score and lost a fumble that went for another in the third quarter.

Last year, OSU returned a pair of interceptions for touchdowns in the final 2:31 for a 28-6 win.

Tonight's Pick: Penn St. +3.5

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Louisville / UCONN and Information

NCAA TonightI am going to pass on the first game on the night because Eastern Michigan has an injury at QB, and I cannot back Northwestern as chalk. Here is the news release on that issue.Eastern Michigan University quarterback Andy Schmitt will not play Friday night against Northwestern at Ford Field, still ailing from the sprained shoulder he suffered in a 48-42 loss last week against Ohio.Freshman Kyle McMahon will make his first collegiate start against the Wildcats, Eastern Michigan spokesman Jim Streeter confirmed Thursday night.He said Monday at his weekly press conference that if McMahon needed to play, it would be with a scaled-back playbook. Tyler Jones, who began last season as the starter, will move to the role of back-up against Northwestern."(McMahon's experience) has been in a limited role, it's been 10-20 plays and when defenses haven't been sophisticated," Genyk said Monday. "So in the event that he has to play more (against Northwestern) it will be a big change."



Uconn+3

They have a great record even though they have not beaten anyone. The weather tonight will be a factor and that should give the edge to the defense and it’s the Huskies that have a better defense and the home team that is an underdog is always something I like to look at.

When Connecticut team played as a Home team - Last 5 years - Playing on grass surface - Coming off a Road loss they are 9-1 ATS
When Connecticut team played as a Home team - Playing on grass surface - Coming off a lost on grass they are 12-4 ATS

South Florida @ Rutgers

Who says crime doesn't pay? South Florida has stolen enough recruits away from longtime powerhouses Florida, Florida State and Miami to soar to the No. 2 spot in the initial BCS rankings.

Coach Jim Leavitt's Bulls are looking to become the fastest program in Division 1-A history to play for a national championship. However, Rutgers could dash USF's historical run Thursday when the Big East rivals clash in front of a raucous crowd in Piscataway.
The Bulls' rise in some ways mirrors the rise of the Scarlet Knight's program. Rutgers was a Big East doormat for years before emerging on the national scene in 2006 by winning 11 of 13 games, including a Texas Bowl win over Kansas State.

USF, who moved to Division 1-A in 2001, has overcome every challenge scattered in its past thus far, but further tests await. The first comes Thursday against a Scarlet Knights team that will be looking to avoid losing three straight at home for the first time since 2003.
The game matches the 11th-best offense in the land against the 11th-ranked defense; Rutgers is averaging 489.7 yards a game, while South Florida is allowing an average of 284.3.
This Garden State showdown is as big a deal for the Scarlet Knights, who fell out of the Top-25 after back-to-back losses to Maryland and Cincinnati, as it is for USF.

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Rutgers is going to have to run effectively to keep Bulls quarterback Jim Grothe on the sidelines. Last season, Ray Rice gained 202 yards on 35 carries in a 22-10 victory against the Bulls. However, USF has gone 14 games since without allowing a runner to crack triple-digits.
Rice is not accumulating rushing yardage at the same pace he did last season, but he still has 818 yards rushing, only 81 fewer than he had after six games in 2006. He also has 17 receptions for 175 yards and is a ferocious pass blocker.
The Scarlet Knights defense will focus on containing Grothe, an elusive sophomore who leads the Bulls with 346 yards rushing.
The key to the game could boil down to the personal battle between Rutgers offensive tackle Pedro Sosa and USF defensive end George Selvie. Sosa, a fifth-year senior and three-year starter will be look to stop Selvie from harassing junior quarterback Mike Teel.
Selvie has been unstoppable in the Bulls' first six games, amassing 11.5 sacks and 21.5 tackles for loss, school records in both categories.
USF won at Auburn on Sept. 8 as 7-point dogs, 26-23, proving it can thrive in a hostile environment. Conversely, Rutgers has failed to prove it can defend its home turf. The Scarlet Knights had won 13 of 17 at home and cashed six of nine until this season, when they dropped back-to-back decisions to Maryland and Cincinnati.
The Bulls are hoping lightning won't strike twice. Louisville came to Rutgers Stadium ranked No. 3 in the country last season on a Thursday night before a national television audience and left on the short end of a 28-25 score.
The Scarlet Knights have thrived against elite teams recently, cashing 12 of 14 and outscoring them by more than 10 points per game. They have also cashed 29 of their last 45 as underdogs. South Florida has 'covered' seven of its last 10 as favorites and six of its last eight against conference foes.
Most offshore books opened the Bulls as 3-point favorites.


Play: UNDER 52.5

New Polls are out

Upsets brought some great changes!!





BCS Standings
1. Ohio State
2. South Florida
3. Boston College
4. LSU
5. Oklahoma
6. South Carolina
7. Kentucky
8. Arizona State
9. West Virginia
10. Oregon
11. Virginia Tech
12. California
13. Kansas
14. USC
15. Florida
16. Missouri
17. Auburn
18. Hawaii
19. Virginia
20. Georgia
21. Tennessee
22. Texas
23. Cincinnati
24. Texas Tech
25. Michigan

Florida St @ Wake Forest ESPN

The Seminoles and the demon Deacons face each other tonight on ESPN in the lone game in college football. This game is being highlighted by folks because of the revenge that Florida St. would have after losing 30-0 last year to the Deacons. Keep this in mind, if the same team won 30-0 just a year ago they may be very confident against that team and they are home on national television. If you like the revenge angles, then you’re probably siding with Florida State. However, be aware that Bobby Bowden’s team is just 3-8 ATS in that role recently. Earlier this year, they failed at Clemson, losing outright 24-18.

The Deacons had a lack luster performance against Duke letting them get the back door cover last week but it was most likely because they were looking ahead to this one against Florida St. The Deacons thrive in the home dog role and are 10-5 ATS in the last 15 as home pups.

Trends:
Florida State: 1-6 ATS off a win by 17+ points

When Wake Forest team played as a Home team - After a division game - Allowed 38 points or less AGAINST in their last game they are 21-14 ATS

Florida St. 1-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-10

Florida St 2-6 ATS off a win against a conference rival

Florida St 7-13 ATS with 6 or less days rest

Wake +5

Both of these defenses are solid and I look for them to shine tonight. Defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews defense is trying to carry this club still in search of an offensive identity. Florida State yields only 15.6 points a game, which in 9th in the country. They have been abundantly proficient in stopping the run, holding opponents to 2.6 yards per carry compared to regular average of 3.8. Opposing passers are gaining just 5.5 yards per pass attempt, placing the ‘Noles 14th in this category. The Deacons defense has forced opponents to slowly move down the field to score. Teams gain just three yards per carry versus Wake Forest, whose strategy is to force the opposition put together 10 or more play drives without making mistakes to beat them.

Trends:

When Florida State team played as a Road team - Vs Division Opponent - Coming off a Win over Atlantic Coast opponent - Coming off a win on grass the under is 22-8
When Florida State team played as a Road team - Vs Atlantic Coast opponent - Coming off a Home win - Scored more than 20 points in back to back games the under is 10-6
When ANY NCAAF Team played as a Road team - Vs Atlantic Coast opponent - Coming off a Home win - Scored more than 20 points in back to back games the under is 127-79 (Fla St.)
When Wake Forest team played as a Home team - After a division game - Allowed 38 points or less AGAINST in their last game the under is 26-8When Wake Forest team played as Home team as a Underdog - During Week 4 to 8 - Allowed 38 points or less AGAINST in their last game the under is 11-3

UNDER 44

Stanford pulls the upset!!!

LOS ANGELES -- Led by a backup quarterback, Stanford pulled off a stunner.

Tavita Pritchard threw a 10-yard touchdown pass to Mark Bradford on a fourth-and-goal with 49 seconds remaining Saturday night, giving the 40-point underdog Cardinal a 24-23 victory over No. 1 Southern California.

The Cardinal (2-4, 1-3 Pac-10) moved 45 yards in 11 plays for the winning touchdown after John David Booty threw the third of his four interceptions.

A leaping Bradford caught the ball over cornerback Mozique McCurtis in the corner of the end zone, leaving the crowd of 85,125 at the Los Angeles Coliseum in stunned silence.



In the days leading up to the game, first-year Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh stuck to his preseason assessment that USC might be the greatest college football team ever. In the end, the Trojans weren't the best team in the Coliseum field.

The Trojans will drop in the rankings this week after losing to a team that was playing its first road game of the season and had been outscored 141-51 in previous Pac-10 action.

USC's 35-game winning streak at the Coliseum is done. The Trojans hadn't lost at home since Stanford beat them 21-16 on Sept. 29, 2001 in the first year of the Pete Carroll era.

Pritchard, a sophomore from Tacoma, Wash., filling in for the injured T.C. Ostrander, completed 11-of-30 for 149 yards and the winning TD in his first college start. The numbers weren't great, but he was awfully good when it counted, leading Stanford to 17 fourth-quarter points.

Check out today's NFL selections by clicking HERE!

Utah At Louisville who is going to win

The trick for this game is to figure out which team from both sides is going to show up. Utah has looked brilliant in stomping UCLA and then will look disappointing to lesser teams and the same can be said could be said for Louisville.

The strength of Louisville is the pass but Utah is 9th in the country against the pass, but that may be because they are so bad against the run (95th). The question for Louisville is what defense will show up. The undisciplined nature of this defense has them allowing 275.6 YPG at 8.2 yards per attempt (108th ranking) which Utah has the tools to take advantage of. The Utes are 14-4 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).Those seeking a quality parlay in Friday night action should be aware Utah is 15-4 UNDER in road games in non-conference games.
The Cardinals got back on track against another non-conference opponent, NC State, last week with a 29-10 win and cover as nine-point road chalk. It was Louisville’s first ATS win of the season and the team now stands at 3-2 SU & 1-3 ATS, with an average point margin of 50.0-32.2. While the offensive output was expected, the struggles on defense have been dramatic. However, having given up just 10 points last week, perhaps that unit has found its groove.
These schools have not met since 1998, however, new Cardinals Coach Steve Kragthorpe lost to Utah in last year’s Armed Forces Bowl, 25-13, as Tulsa’s head man.



The Utes boast a 44-6 win against UCLA, but also a 27-0 loss to UNLV. They are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS overall. Typically a strong play as an underdog, Utah is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS when getting more than a TD under HC Whittingham.

Utah is a perfect 5-0 all-time against current Big East members, including a 2 for 2 mark against Louisville.
Louisville is a whopping 67-37 ATS when they score 28 or more points over that time frame. Over the last two seasons Louisville is 6-0 'over' the 'total' when they gain 500 or more total yards and has gone 'over' 36 of the last 54 games when scoring at least 28 points.
This season is no different for Utah, as the Utes have a tendency to start slow, especially against the spread. The Utes are 4-14 ATS in the first half of the season the last three years.
Quarterback Brian Brohm and the Louisville offense will be Utah's toughest test all thus far and most likely the rest of the season. Brohm leads the Big East in passing yards (1,948), touchdowns (16) and is third in passer rating (170.37). The six-foot-four quarterback will be a Top-3 pick in the upcoming NFL draft, but he could struggle more than people think against Utah. The Utes' secondary has held teams to an average of 151.6 yards per game.
Brohm will get the Big East's leading receiver Harry Douglas back from an ankle injury. Douglas didn't play last week versus NC State, yet he still leads the conference with 679 receiving yards and is tied for the most receiving touchdowns with 5.

Trends that are good and bad for both sides I just found posted everyone I came across:

Utah is 16-2 ATS after playing in-state rival Utah State.
Utah: 4-14 ATS in the first half of the season
Louisville: 10-4 ATS as a home favorite
Utah is 24-10 Under when coming off a home win as well as 11-2 Under coming off a no-cover where the team won straight up.
The Cardinals double digit faves, they are 14-7 ATS when in this spot.
When Utah team played as Road team as a Underdog - After a non conference game - Coming off a Win over Western Athletic opponent they are 7-3 ATS
When Louisville team played as a -10.0 or more Favorite - Playing on artificial surface - Coming off a 1 under the over is 14-6
When Louisville team played as a Home team - Last 5 years - Coming off a 1 under the over is 8-2





Utah / Louisville OVER 61

Rice At Southern Miss Who will win? ESPN

On to tonight’s game:

Line: Eagles -20.5 / 54.5
First Half: Eagles -11.5 / 27.5O20

Rice at Southern Miss, 8:00 EST ESPN2Rice: 10-0 Over off a non-conference gameSouthern Miss: 19-5 ATS off a loss by 17+ points

Southern Miss will dominate this game, I hate to take two favorites in back to back games, but a good friend of mine once said that if you take bad teams you can expect bad things, and the 20 points look tempting, but Rice is that bad.

If Rice is going to compete in conference they will need All-America wide receiver Jarett Dillard, who was on the sidelines for most of the Texas game with a strained left hamstring. Quarterback Chase Clement has been under heavy pressure all season, since the opposing team has no fear of a running game that is averaging 88 yards per game at 2.4 yards per carry. The Rice pass defense would scare most owls away, as they have given up an average of 412.3 YPG the last three contests, yielding 53 PPG in the process. The Owls are 3-13 ATS in road games after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game.
Southern Mississippi has a short week of preparation after being bounced 38-16 at Boise State last Thursday. The Golden Eagles will try go back to work in conference play off recent important win over East Carolina in attempt to win the East Division. Senior quarterback Jeremy Young was the weak link in the offense in prior years, yet this season has stepped up his game, meaning USM is better equipped to play in higher scoring games than in the past. Coach Jeff Bower in his 17th season in Hattiesburg will always want to run the ball effectively and has running back Damion Fletcher to do so. Fletcher is averaging five yards a carry on a team gaining 172 yards per game on the ground in 41 attempts. That figure is less impressive when considering the teams they have played have allowed 188 YPG on the ground. Young will be looking towards his primary outlet is Chris Johnson, who has 21 pass catches this season.
The defense has contained weak offensive teams like Rice and been taken apart by clubs better equipped to move the ball. When facing teams like Tennessee-Martin and East Carolina, they held them to under 300 total yards offense. While on the other hand Boise State and Tennessee both surpassed the 470 total yards mark. The Golden Eagles are 19-5 ATS after a loss by 17 or more points

GET THE BEST LINE HERE!

When Rice team played as a Road team - Last 4 years - Coming off a lost on artificial Rice is 5-11 ATS

When Southern Mississippi team played as a Home team - Playing on grass surface - Coming off 1 game loss they are 12-5 ATS

No Look ahead here for the Eagles as they have a game against SMU next week for homecoming. The practices leading up to this game have looked great.
The Golden Eagles, which will face Rice in a 7 p.m., kickoff at Carlisle-Faulkner Field at "The Rock," started their preparations for the Owls (0-4, 0-0) Saturday night with an hour and a half practice and returned to work Sunday night with a two-hour workout in shorts and shoulder pads at the Joe P. Park Practice Facility.
Head coach Jeff Bower liked the way his team has responded in practice over the last two days.
"It was a pretty good practice," Bower said of his team's Sunday night workout. "The energy level was where we needed to be."
I am going to keep this a small play for just ½ unit with QB issues with the Eagles.

Eagles -20.5

Marshall At Memphis ESPN 2 Who will win!

Marshall At Memphis ESPN 2

I would be remiss if I did not mention Taylor Bradford and the tragedy that unfolded in the last several days. My prayers go out to everyone involved especially his family, the death of such a young man no matter what the circumstance is unfortunate.

There will be stickers with Bradford's number 93 printed on them handed out around the stadium and available in First Tennessee Tiger Town. In addition, there will be a giant card located in Tiger Town for fans to sign that will presented to Bradford's family

When it comes to the game the line jumped from 1.5 to up and over 3 in some places and one look at consensus will tell you why.

Consensus
Memphis 71%
Under 63%

This is a go against for me 90% of the time, but a consensus does not always mean that team is going to lose (see Patriots last night) the question is how is the team dealing with the death of a teammate. Take a look at some of the quotes from the head coach.

GET THE BEST LINE HERE:



Talk about tomorrow's game and the thought process that went into continuing it.Well I talked to them. I really want our team to be a part of this. I told them this isn't a situation where I make every decision for them. I think they need to make it. That's part of getting through. They know that we have to move on. You can't just stop. They understand that. I think it's important that they talk and they make decisions. They made the decision. I talked to them this morning. (Athletic Director) R.C. (Johnson) and I talked. We met about the game, and we talked to a lot of the players. They were in favor of playing the game.
At this time, they say they need a little bit of time. We're going to stay together. We're going to try to be together tonight. We probably won't get anything done today football wise. We're going to take today and do what we have to do. Then tomorrow morning we'll start working on football. It won't be a practice, but we'll have a walk-through tomorrow morning and then start back with film. We don't play until 7 o'clock so we have some time tomorrow to try and catch up.

Are there any big plans before the game?Yeah. (Our) players had a page and a half of ways--I wanted them to have ways of how you honor one of your guys. They had some really good stuff. I know we're going to try and get something to put on our helmets. But we wanted to do something. They brought up a million different things, some really good stuff--trying to maybe after this season doing something to raise some money for his parents, or for a scholarship fund or an award named after him for the spring game. They had a page and a half of ways we could honor one of our guys. They're really, really good kids.
Too things stuck out to me, the team wants to stay together during this tragedy, for each other, for the family, for the team. This strikes me as a positive when it comes to tonight and when asked how to pay tribute to Bradford and they had countless ways to do and as a team they all wanted to play. I am not buying the tired from playing in a bunch of games in a limited time frame because they VOTED to play tonight, they WANT to play tonight’s game.

MEMPHIS -1.5 first half
MEMPHIS -3 GAME

The herd cannot stop this team on the rush and are pathetic con the road. They are 2-11 ATS in the last 13 road games and average giving up 6.0 yards per carry. The defense is even better for Memphis when it comes to pure numbers.

Memphis is 9-2 ATS in C-USA home lid-lifters, averaging 412 yards of total offense. The defense has offered little help giving up 32 points a game and 414 YPG. Of course that seems like a bargain compared to Marshall, who has rolled over in allowing 41.7 PPG and 447 YPG. It is far from a thundering herd for Marshall, who is10-26-1 ATS mark on the conference road.

When Marshall team played as a Road team - Vs Division Opponent - Coming off 1 ATS lost Marshall is 3-7 ATS

When Memphis team played as a Home team - After a non conference game - Coming off a Loss over Sun Belt opponent they are 15-9 ATS

Marshall is 1-8 ATS as a road underdog and Memphis is 23-10 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less.
After the last game against Cincinnati even Marshall’s head coach new they were in trouble. "There were a few gutsy individual performances out there," Marshall coach Mark Snyder said. "But as a whole, I think we're a very poorly coached football team right now." To be fair the Herd has four starters gone on defense, however it has been turnovers and penalties that have placed the defense in the hole and the false starts and holding penalties stalling the offense.
Even worse for the Thundering Herd is the fact they’ve failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine road games, all of which came as underdogs. In C-USA play, they’ve gone just 2-6 ATS off campus, with the average loss coming by 20 PPG and the average win coming by just 4 PPG. The Marshall run defense has been porous. Incredibly, they have already allowed 1052 yards on the ground this season. Therefore, the Memphis RB tandem of T.J. Pitts and Joseph Doss should have a productive evening.

The home side has won and covered in each of the two previous meetings between the schools, with the average win coming by 19 points. Last year, Memphis posted a season high 469 total yards, but lost 41-27 due to four costly turnovers, which resulted in 14 Marshall points.
Penalties and turnovers are against this team and momentum is too. Revenge and emotion will win out in this one.

FINAL: Memphis 44 Marshall 17