Florida St @ Wake Forest ESPN

The Seminoles and the demon Deacons face each other tonight on ESPN in the lone game in college football. This game is being highlighted by folks because of the revenge that Florida St. would have after losing 30-0 last year to the Deacons. Keep this in mind, if the same team won 30-0 just a year ago they may be very confident against that team and they are home on national television. If you like the revenge angles, then you’re probably siding with Florida State. However, be aware that Bobby Bowden’s team is just 3-8 ATS in that role recently. Earlier this year, they failed at Clemson, losing outright 24-18.

The Deacons had a lack luster performance against Duke letting them get the back door cover last week but it was most likely because they were looking ahead to this one against Florida St. The Deacons thrive in the home dog role and are 10-5 ATS in the last 15 as home pups.

Trends:
Florida State: 1-6 ATS off a win by 17+ points

When Wake Forest team played as a Home team - After a division game - Allowed 38 points or less AGAINST in their last game they are 21-14 ATS

Florida St. 1-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-10

Florida St 2-6 ATS off a win against a conference rival

Florida St 7-13 ATS with 6 or less days rest

Wake +5

Both of these defenses are solid and I look for them to shine tonight. Defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews defense is trying to carry this club still in search of an offensive identity. Florida State yields only 15.6 points a game, which in 9th in the country. They have been abundantly proficient in stopping the run, holding opponents to 2.6 yards per carry compared to regular average of 3.8. Opposing passers are gaining just 5.5 yards per pass attempt, placing the ‘Noles 14th in this category. The Deacons defense has forced opponents to slowly move down the field to score. Teams gain just three yards per carry versus Wake Forest, whose strategy is to force the opposition put together 10 or more play drives without making mistakes to beat them.

Trends:

When Florida State team played as a Road team - Vs Division Opponent - Coming off a Win over Atlantic Coast opponent - Coming off a win on grass the under is 22-8
When Florida State team played as a Road team - Vs Atlantic Coast opponent - Coming off a Home win - Scored more than 20 points in back to back games the under is 10-6
When ANY NCAAF Team played as a Road team - Vs Atlantic Coast opponent - Coming off a Home win - Scored more than 20 points in back to back games the under is 127-79 (Fla St.)
When Wake Forest team played as a Home team - After a division game - Allowed 38 points or less AGAINST in their last game the under is 26-8When Wake Forest team played as Home team as a Underdog - During Week 4 to 8 - Allowed 38 points or less AGAINST in their last game the under is 11-3

UNDER 44