Saturday College Football selections
Record at the blog: 1-1, -.10
There are two favorites that I believe the public have pumped up due to emotion and preseason rankings and both of them are plays today.
East Carolina +28
There is no doubt that the tragedy at VT was devastating and this campus, city, and country have gathered behind them to embrace the sadness and celebrate the recovery. We will prevail, we are Virginia Tech are some of the greatest words I will hear all week. Let’s talk football. If the hokies have a question mark it’s with the QB, and that goes for East Carolina who had a suspension for a DWI and will not have a starting QB. This game will be decided by defense and special teams. ECU has better special teams play than VT, don’t be stunned it’s the truth. They have a great FG kicker and in a game decided by defense a FG kicker is the difference and ECU has the edge. Look for a strong rushing attack and a defensive showing by ECU and VT will prevail but it will be close.
Western Michigan +23.5
There is not another team that is hyped higher than West Virginia and the Mountaineers. The hype is deserved with two Heisman candidates and a sift schedule they can go along ay. Western Michigan has other plans and this kind of television exposure will work wonders if they can make a good impression and that will come from the offense. The offense is deep and solid and will have enough fire power to keep this close.
TV Games
Boston College -6
Tennessee +6
Auburn -12.5
Georgia -6
UCLA -16
Coloado St. +2.5
Nevada +21
Rest of the best:
Army +5
USC/Idaho Over
UTEP +3.5
Friday, August 31, 2007
Friday Night LIghts Preview & Pick
College Football Betting Preview
Washington at Syracuse Friday, 8:00 pm Eastern – ESPN
Opening Line: Washington -3.5, Total 45.5
Two college football teams with a lot to prove meet on Friday night in Syracuse as the Orange host the Washington Huskies. It will be the first ever Friday night game in the Carrier Dome. "You can feel festivity in the air about the season," Syracuse head coach Greg Robinson. "I look forward to the day when that dome is rockin'." It has not happened with Robinson on the sideline as Syracuse is a poor 5-18 with him at the helm. SBG Global reports that early betting has the public taking the favored Washington on the Road.
Things are not much better for Washington with Tyrone Willingham at the controls. He is 7-16 at Washington and has definitely not delivered as head coach. Many people think that Washington has the toughest schedule in college football this season so things may not get any better for the Huskies in 2007. After opening at Syracuse, the Huskies will play six teams ranked in the preseason AP Top 25, including #1 USC. The Huskies will be starting redshirt freshman quarterback Jake Locker against Syracuse. He is a highly recruited player that is Washington is hoping will turn the program around. "I have expectations for myself. I've set goals, things I want to accomplish, and I'm going to work hard to achieve that," Locker said. "We'll see what happens on Friday night."
SBG Global Current Line: Washington -3.5, Total 45.5
Syracuse also starts a new quarterback in Andrew Robinson. "You always have a little bit of nerves going out there and dropping back," Robinson said. "But the more comfortable you get the less nervous you get. It's going to be fun. The dome's going to be rocking."
It's been a long time since the Carrier Dome was sold out. The last time was in 2000 when Miami was in town. It is unlikely the Carrier Dome will get anywhere near that many fans on Friday. "It's important to win any game, and everybody that plays football or watches football knows home games are important," said Syracuse defensive end Jameel McClain, "We're going to go out there and fight our hardest."
The Huskies are 4-14 in their last 18 games on turf. Syracuse is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Syracuse is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home.
The Under is 9-1 in Washington’s last 10 games as a favorite. The Under is 7-2-1 in the Huskies last 10 games overall. The Under is 7-2 in Syracuse’s last 9 home games.
Two college football teams with a lot to prove meet on Friday night in Syracuse as the Orange host the Washington Huskies. It will be the first ever Friday night game in the Carrier Dome. "You can feel festivity in the air about the season," Syracuse head coach Greg Robinson. "I look forward to the day when that dome is rockin'." It has not happened with Robinson on the sideline as Syracuse is a poor 5-18 with him at the helm. SBG Global reports that early betting has the public taking the favored Washington on the Road.
Things are not much better for Washington with Tyrone Willingham at the controls. He is 7-16 at Washington and has definitely not delivered as head coach. Many people think that Washington has the toughest schedule in college football this season so things may not get any better for the Huskies in 2007. After opening at Syracuse, the Huskies will play six teams ranked in the preseason AP Top 25, including #1 USC. The Huskies will be starting redshirt freshman quarterback Jake Locker against Syracuse. He is a highly recruited player that is Washington is hoping will turn the program around. "I have expectations for myself. I've set goals, things I want to accomplish, and I'm going to work hard to achieve that," Locker said. "We'll see what happens on Friday night."
SBG Global Current Line: Washington -3.5, Total 45.5
Syracuse also starts a new quarterback in Andrew Robinson. "You always have a little bit of nerves going out there and dropping back," Robinson said. "But the more comfortable you get the less nervous you get. It's going to be fun. The dome's going to be rocking."
It's been a long time since the Carrier Dome was sold out. The last time was in 2000 when Miami was in town. It is unlikely the Carrier Dome will get anywhere near that many fans on Friday. "It's important to win any game, and everybody that plays football or watches football knows home games are important," said Syracuse defensive end Jameel McClain, "We're going to go out there and fight our hardest."
The Huskies are 4-14 in their last 18 games on turf. Syracuse is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Syracuse is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home.
The Under is 9-1 in Washington’s last 10 games as a favorite. The Under is 7-2-1 in the Huskies last 10 games overall. The Under is 7-2 in Syracuse’s last 9 home games.
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Thursday, August 30, 2007
Opening Night!
Line MistakeIn week one of the college football season the lines makers have already dropped the ball and have posted a line that is way off and has already moved in an attempt to correct it.
Ball St. -4.5
I have seen lower than five already at several sportsboooks so make sure to look around. Miami of Ohio received early money but people were betting off of last year’s Miami Ohio team and the truth is they are a completely other team this year and Ball St. is better, and much better in fact. It is opening night which is always big at home but they are playing in a renovated stadium just another reason to get the team and the crowd fired up.
Miami OH is 1-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and Ball State is 11-5 ATS vs. conference opponents making this a great situation to back the Cardinals. Nate Davis is just a sophomore QB but he will turn heads in this game and put his name on the map. Ball St. Beats Miami soundly tonight and covers this number easily.
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Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Early Season Handicapping
We're now just a couple of days away from the start of the college football season. Here are some factors to remember when trying to pick winners in the season openers. As I mentioned here two weeks ago, the rules have changed in the offseason in a way that will favor the powerhouses and hurt lesser teams. After a one-year experiment that shrunk college games, the clock will run much more like it did back in 2005. Remember to put those points back on the board when outlining expectations for games in 2007. And remember that moving kickoffs back to the 30-yard line will help squads that have superior special teams. I won't restate everything from that prior article. Just remember to include those factors when handicapping!
Remember that defenses are ahead of offenses at the beginning of a college season. It didn't used to be this dramatic, but in recent years we've seen several offenses really struggle early on. Defenses are much more aggressive than they used to be. If you've got a new quarterback, and a new running back in charge of picking up blitzes, your offense will have trouble in the first few games of the season. Last year's timing changes exacerbated this element, leading to some very low scoring openers. Remember when both Temple/Buffalo and Miami of Ohio/Northwestern were scoreless at the half on the first night of action? This year's rules adjustments will just be giving some teams more plays to flounder!
Make note of all the successful teams from last year that lost their starting quarterbacks. There's a slew of them! The worst thing you can do early in a season is to bet off last year's expectations. Notre Dame is going to look like a whole different team this year. The teams that played in the BCS championship game, Florida and Ohio State, both have new quarterbacks. Strong finisher LSU does as well. Make the new quarterbacks earn your respect on the field before investing in them.
Make note of all bowl caliber teams who return most of their offenses. There are actually some nice second tier teams who are poised to hit the ground running in 2007 because they've got so many starters back. They'll be able to handle blitzes out of the gate. And, they'll be eager to make even more headlines this year than they did last season. The worst favorites to take will be last year's powers that lost quarterbacks. The best favorites to take will be these second tier teams who return experience in the right spots. Heck, some of these guys will be dogs at least once early on. Be on the lookout for upset specials.
Catch up on injuries and suspensions! If you did a lot of research based on information in those newsstand publications that came out over the summer, you may not be aware that many top players have since been injured or suspended. The last thing you want to do is bet on a game, then find out when the telecast starts that your star running back isn't going to play…and everyone BUT you seemed to know about it! Check internet sites for reports on injuries and suspensions. Also be aware that a few returning starting quarterbacks lost their starting jobs within the last couple of weeks during late summer practices. You'd hate to bet against a team because the QB was bad last year, only to find out that a hotshot recruit is ready to turn the program around.
Finally, remember that the oddsmakers are behind the eight-ball a bit because of the rules adjustments. This year more than ever, you should be looking at the early games Thursday, Friday, and Saturday morning to get a feel for what football in 2007 is going to look like. Then you can take advantage in later starts Saturday afternoon and evening. Really, before last year, you could pretty much handicap September football with the same old basics. The rules changes in 2006 caught Vegas napping. Unders were a STEAL for about a month because scoring dropped so much. And, there were many great underdog plays because the games had shrunk. Favorites didn't have time to express their superiority in a way that matched the spreads. The tinkering and re-tinkering with the clock and kickoffs throws a monkey wrench into the line making process. If you can read the tea leaves before they do, you'll be able to take advantage for most of the month in my opinion.
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
What Polls mean to Bettors
Look into the polls before you wager
The preseason rankings are out and according to the soothsayers and prognosticators over at The Associated Press offices, the BCS might as well call FedEx and ship their crystal football off to L.A. right now.
The USC Trojans are ranked No. 1 in the AP preseason poll for the third time in the last four years. There’s so much hype over this team, one overzealous Pac-10 coach even went so far as to call this edition of the Trojans, “the best college football team of all time.”
Wow. No wonder the Vegas bookmakers deemed it necessary to take 45 points from USC in their season-opener against the Idaho Vandals.
Well, it might also have something to do with the ugly memory of the Vandals’ 46-point loss to the Washington State Cougars – a Pac-10 team with decidedly less firepower than Southern Cal – in the early days of last season.
But we’ve heard the hype before. The last time the Trojans were ranked No. 1 (2005) they finished the season undefeated, but at the sportsbook, they were only a .500 team, going 6-6 against the spread (ATS) that year.
Which begs the question: should bettors pay any attention to all the hubbub and hoopla that comes with the buildup to the NCAA football season?
Judging by the results in recent years the answer is: yes and no.
How’s that for convoluted? If you take a look at the historical preseason rankings and the correlating ATS results, it might make more sense.
Of course, you can’t paint every team that has been selected No. 1 in the last 10 preseason polls with the same brush. Every team is different and not all will live up to the great expectations or prove capable of dealing with the constant pressure of being on top of the NCAA mountain, but you can use the results as a guide as to how the oddsmakers treat the No. 1 team.
The top ranking means a big rep and usually – big handicaps.
As you can see from the results, that doesn’t always pose a problem for these squads. Last year the Ohio State Buckeyes went 9-3 ATS and made a pile of money for some of their backers, despite double-digit pointspreads almost every week.
But bettors must be careful in such situations because over the last 10 years, five top-ranked preseason favorites have posted losing seasons against the spread. Overall, these highly touted teams have gone 63-60 ATS since the 1997-1998 season, which isn’t exactly convincing one way or the other.
This year’s Trojans will have their work cut out for them, especially if oddsmakers continue to post five, six and even seven-touchdown handicaps on their games.
The last two years in which the Trojans were No. 1 on the preseason AP Poll, the team went on to a combined 14-12 ATS record, but on both occasions, they did not have good starts to the season at the sportsbook. In 2004 (a season in which the USC racked up big money with an 8-5 ATS record) they went 2-3 versus the number in their first five games. The next year, they barely managed to earn a profitable start with a 3-2 start to the season.
Overall, No. 1 preseason teams have gone 27-22 in their opening stretch of the schedule over the last 10 years.
If you’re looking for a better historical bet, you might want to look at the LSU Tigers this year because the No. 2 preseason team has gone a combined 68-56 over the last 10 years.
The No. 3 team has been on the other end of the spectrum, disappointing supporters with a 49-70-1 showing over the last decade. Bettors who put any weight on historical statistics will avoid the West Virginia Mountaineers this year because only two No. 3 preseason selections have finished with a better than .500 ATS season over the last decade.
The preseason rankings are out and according to the soothsayers and prognosticators over at The Associated Press offices, the BCS might as well call FedEx and ship their crystal football off to L.A. right now.
The USC Trojans are ranked No. 1 in the AP preseason poll for the third time in the last four years. There’s so much hype over this team, one overzealous Pac-10 coach even went so far as to call this edition of the Trojans, “the best college football team of all time.”
Wow. No wonder the Vegas bookmakers deemed it necessary to take 45 points from USC in their season-opener against the Idaho Vandals.
Well, it might also have something to do with the ugly memory of the Vandals’ 46-point loss to the Washington State Cougars – a Pac-10 team with decidedly less firepower than Southern Cal – in the early days of last season.
But we’ve heard the hype before. The last time the Trojans were ranked No. 1 (2005) they finished the season undefeated, but at the sportsbook, they were only a .500 team, going 6-6 against the spread (ATS) that year.
Which begs the question: should bettors pay any attention to all the hubbub and hoopla that comes with the buildup to the NCAA football season?
Judging by the results in recent years the answer is: yes and no.
How’s that for convoluted? If you take a look at the historical preseason rankings and the correlating ATS results, it might make more sense.
Of course, you can’t paint every team that has been selected No. 1 in the last 10 preseason polls with the same brush. Every team is different and not all will live up to the great expectations or prove capable of dealing with the constant pressure of being on top of the NCAA mountain, but you can use the results as a guide as to how the oddsmakers treat the No. 1 team.
The top ranking means a big rep and usually – big handicaps.
As you can see from the results, that doesn’t always pose a problem for these squads. Last year the Ohio State Buckeyes went 9-3 ATS and made a pile of money for some of their backers, despite double-digit pointspreads almost every week.
But bettors must be careful in such situations because over the last 10 years, five top-ranked preseason favorites have posted losing seasons against the spread. Overall, these highly touted teams have gone 63-60 ATS since the 1997-1998 season, which isn’t exactly convincing one way or the other.
This year’s Trojans will have their work cut out for them, especially if oddsmakers continue to post five, six and even seven-touchdown handicaps on their games.
The last two years in which the Trojans were No. 1 on the preseason AP Poll, the team went on to a combined 14-12 ATS record, but on both occasions, they did not have good starts to the season at the sportsbook. In 2004 (a season in which the USC racked up big money with an 8-5 ATS record) they went 2-3 versus the number in their first five games. The next year, they barely managed to earn a profitable start with a 3-2 start to the season.
Overall, No. 1 preseason teams have gone 27-22 in their opening stretch of the schedule over the last 10 years.
If you’re looking for a better historical bet, you might want to look at the LSU Tigers this year because the No. 2 preseason team has gone a combined 68-56 over the last 10 years.
The No. 3 team has been on the other end of the spectrum, disappointing supporters with a 49-70-1 showing over the last decade. Bettors who put any weight on historical statistics will avoid the West Virginia Mountaineers this year because only two No. 3 preseason selections have finished with a better than .500 ATS season over the last decade.
Sunday, August 19, 2007
College News & Notes by BookMaker
News & Notes
Listen. Can you hear it? The barking of signals, the shrill bleat of whistles, the cracking of pads.
It’s college football season. Campuses are energized again with the contained nuclear meltdown that is fall training camp and it won’t be long before our Saturdays will be blessed with the bounty of a new season.
It’s been a long summer of speculation and roster rumination, but finally, you can start to see what the teams might look like when they take the field in Week 1.
Earlier in the summer, you could ignore the so-called news on college football wires because the season was still months away. But this time of year, the news really starts to matter. So here’s your preseason installment of College Cram Session, where we’ll look at the news surrounding various teams and what it will mean when the season kicks off in two weeks time.
Panthers in the pits
If you’re the kind of person that likes to chant, “Penn State sucks” at football games, regardless of who’s playing, then you’re probably just about ready to stick your head in a blast furnace. Things aren’t going so well in Steeltown and the news just keeps getting worse.
Not only did the NFL snatch up the Pittsburgh Panthers’ three best players from last year’s team (quarterback Tyler Palko, linebacker H.B. Blades and cornerback Darrelle Revis), but the team that finished 2-5 in Big East play will have a hard time improving on that mark if their luck doesn’t take a turn for the better.
The brightest light coming out of Pittsburgh this season was big-time freshman quarterback Pat Bostick, but a shadow was cast over campus when the high school phenomenon left Panthers camp for “personal reasons.” Bostick has since returned, but missing the first nine practices won’t help the youngster’s chances of making an immediate impact. And whoever ends up starting at quarterback will have to make do without the guy who was expected to be the prime target. Star wide receiver Derek Kinder blew out his knee in practice and will be out for the entire season.
And wait, that’s not all the bad news. Apparently coach Dave Wannstedt was enraged with the play of his special teams this week after numerous snaps were fumbled, field goals were blocked and punts were shanked. "I was very disappointed with our special teams. What happened today is inexcusable," the coach said.
Maybe later for Sooners
It could be another slow start for the Oklahoma Sooners this year if they don’t find their offensive triggerman soon. Word out of Norman is that the coaching staff is no closer to choosing a starting quarterback than they were at the end of last season.
Three candidates are currently vying for the job: junior Joey Halzle, redshirt freshman Sam Bradford and true freshman Keith Nichol. It could take a number of regular season games before the final decision is made, so expect to see coach Bob Stoops shuffling his QBs in the opening games against North Texas and then Miami.
However, none of these guys have any real experience and even though the Sooners were faced with a quarterback emergency last year when Rhett Bomar was booted from the team, at least they had a capable replacement in Paul Thomson. This year, it could be even uglier in the early going. The defense is good and the running game should survive without Adrian Peterson, but bettors might want to look to the under without a capable signal caller under center.
Thunder and Lightning
In 2005, the USC Trojans piled up rushing yards with the “thunder and lightning” tailback combination of Reggie Bush and LenDale White. It might sound like a stretch, but the Texas A&M Aggies coaching staff have been watching film of the ’05 Trojans and are planning on recreating that kind of backfield magic with their own tag-team tailbacks, Jorvorskie Lane and Mike Goodson.
"Nobody in the country can stop us," Lane was quoted as saying in the Dallas Morning News. "That's how I feel about our offense."
The big guy might have a point there. There are other teams in the country that have good one-two punches, but none have a true up-the-gut steamroller like Lane combined with a legitimate open-field burner like Goodson. Last year the two combined to give the Aggies the eighth best rushing attack in the country (206.8 yards per game) and if they can bring a little bit of the Hollywood magic to the Big 12 South, they could tear up the conference this year – especially with some suspect defenses in that neck of the woods.
O-line issues on Georgia's mind
The Georgia Bulldogs offense could get out of the gates in low gear this season. There are many problems with the offensive line, mainly due to a lack of experienced players.
Mentally, O-line is one of the most demanding positions on the field and with four true or redshirt freshmen playing on the first unit, it’s no wonder that the offense was incapable of going anywhere in the first scrimmage of camp last week.
"We had a big discussion as a team about having a lot of missed assignments," offensive coordinator Mike Bobo said. "Not knowing what to do is hindering our effort. We are not playing hard. A lot of it has to do with the youth. There are freshmen everywhere. [But] you can't make excuses. They are going to play."
The situation will improve somewhat when senior Chester Adams returns from a minor ankle injury, but the Bulldogs still have only eight scholarship offensive linemen to work with. This could be an issue that may frustrate Georgia backers throughout the season.
Golden boy in Bears camp
The California Golden Bears already have one superstar wide receiver in DeSean Jackson, the No. 1 rated receiver in the nation who used his incredible jets to rack up more than 1,000 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns last year. But judging by the whispers out of training camp, there could be another deep threat in the Cal offensive arsenal this season.
Freshman receiver Michael Calvin made some spectacular catches against first-string defenders that got the attention of the veterans and coaches. He made back-to-back highlight reel catches at one point and followed it up with a diving catch on the sideline that inspired Jackson to sprint down the field to congratulate him. Coach Jeff Tedford praised the 6-foot-3, 193-pound true freshman after the practice, which indicates he could become a significant part of the Bears offense this year.
That’s pretty scary for the rest of the Pac-10 considering Cal put up 252 yards per game through the air last year and they’re already stacked at almost every offensive position.
Listen. Can you hear it? The barking of signals, the shrill bleat of whistles, the cracking of pads.
It’s college football season. Campuses are energized again with the contained nuclear meltdown that is fall training camp and it won’t be long before our Saturdays will be blessed with the bounty of a new season.
It’s been a long summer of speculation and roster rumination, but finally, you can start to see what the teams might look like when they take the field in Week 1.
Earlier in the summer, you could ignore the so-called news on college football wires because the season was still months away. But this time of year, the news really starts to matter. So here’s your preseason installment of College Cram Session, where we’ll look at the news surrounding various teams and what it will mean when the season kicks off in two weeks time.
Panthers in the pits
If you’re the kind of person that likes to chant, “Penn State sucks” at football games, regardless of who’s playing, then you’re probably just about ready to stick your head in a blast furnace. Things aren’t going so well in Steeltown and the news just keeps getting worse.
Not only did the NFL snatch up the Pittsburgh Panthers’ three best players from last year’s team (quarterback Tyler Palko, linebacker H.B. Blades and cornerback Darrelle Revis), but the team that finished 2-5 in Big East play will have a hard time improving on that mark if their luck doesn’t take a turn for the better.
The brightest light coming out of Pittsburgh this season was big-time freshman quarterback Pat Bostick, but a shadow was cast over campus when the high school phenomenon left Panthers camp for “personal reasons.” Bostick has since returned, but missing the first nine practices won’t help the youngster’s chances of making an immediate impact. And whoever ends up starting at quarterback will have to make do without the guy who was expected to be the prime target. Star wide receiver Derek Kinder blew out his knee in practice and will be out for the entire season.
And wait, that’s not all the bad news. Apparently coach Dave Wannstedt was enraged with the play of his special teams this week after numerous snaps were fumbled, field goals were blocked and punts were shanked. "I was very disappointed with our special teams. What happened today is inexcusable," the coach said.
Maybe later for Sooners
It could be another slow start for the Oklahoma Sooners this year if they don’t find their offensive triggerman soon. Word out of Norman is that the coaching staff is no closer to choosing a starting quarterback than they were at the end of last season.
Three candidates are currently vying for the job: junior Joey Halzle, redshirt freshman Sam Bradford and true freshman Keith Nichol. It could take a number of regular season games before the final decision is made, so expect to see coach Bob Stoops shuffling his QBs in the opening games against North Texas and then Miami.
However, none of these guys have any real experience and even though the Sooners were faced with a quarterback emergency last year when Rhett Bomar was booted from the team, at least they had a capable replacement in Paul Thomson. This year, it could be even uglier in the early going. The defense is good and the running game should survive without Adrian Peterson, but bettors might want to look to the under without a capable signal caller under center.
Thunder and Lightning
In 2005, the USC Trojans piled up rushing yards with the “thunder and lightning” tailback combination of Reggie Bush and LenDale White. It might sound like a stretch, but the Texas A&M Aggies coaching staff have been watching film of the ’05 Trojans and are planning on recreating that kind of backfield magic with their own tag-team tailbacks, Jorvorskie Lane and Mike Goodson.
"Nobody in the country can stop us," Lane was quoted as saying in the Dallas Morning News. "That's how I feel about our offense."
The big guy might have a point there. There are other teams in the country that have good one-two punches, but none have a true up-the-gut steamroller like Lane combined with a legitimate open-field burner like Goodson. Last year the two combined to give the Aggies the eighth best rushing attack in the country (206.8 yards per game) and if they can bring a little bit of the Hollywood magic to the Big 12 South, they could tear up the conference this year – especially with some suspect defenses in that neck of the woods.
O-line issues on Georgia's mind
The Georgia Bulldogs offense could get out of the gates in low gear this season. There are many problems with the offensive line, mainly due to a lack of experienced players.
Mentally, O-line is one of the most demanding positions on the field and with four true or redshirt freshmen playing on the first unit, it’s no wonder that the offense was incapable of going anywhere in the first scrimmage of camp last week.
"We had a big discussion as a team about having a lot of missed assignments," offensive coordinator Mike Bobo said. "Not knowing what to do is hindering our effort. We are not playing hard. A lot of it has to do with the youth. There are freshmen everywhere. [But] you can't make excuses. They are going to play."
The situation will improve somewhat when senior Chester Adams returns from a minor ankle injury, but the Bulldogs still have only eight scholarship offensive linemen to work with. This could be an issue that may frustrate Georgia backers throughout the season.
Golden boy in Bears camp
The California Golden Bears already have one superstar wide receiver in DeSean Jackson, the No. 1 rated receiver in the nation who used his incredible jets to rack up more than 1,000 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns last year. But judging by the whispers out of training camp, there could be another deep threat in the Cal offensive arsenal this season.
Freshman receiver Michael Calvin made some spectacular catches against first-string defenders that got the attention of the veterans and coaches. He made back-to-back highlight reel catches at one point and followed it up with a diving catch on the sideline that inspired Jackson to sprint down the field to congratulate him. Coach Jeff Tedford praised the 6-foot-3, 193-pound true freshman after the practice, which indicates he could become a significant part of the Bears offense this year.
That’s pretty scary for the rest of the Pac-10 considering Cal put up 252 yards per game through the air last year and they’re already stacked at almost every offensive position.
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Sun Belt Betting Preview
It’s difficult to figure out the Sun Belt – six of its eight schools (soon to be nine, with Western Kentucky making a slow transition into top-flight collegiate football) have shared the conference’s best record at least once over the last three seasons.
One certainty is that there’s a bigger gap between the Sun Belt and the BCS conferences than with any of the other mid-majors. Sun Belt teams combined to lose all 24 games against BCS opponents in 2006 and while there were some scares, the conference’s 10-14 against-the-spread (ATS) record against the big boys leaves something to be desired as well.
Troy Trojans
Troy couldn’t have ended 2006 on a higher note stealing the conference title from Middle Tennessee with 14 points in the dying minutes of their head-to-head clash, then laying a 41-17 thumping on Rice in the New Orleans Bowl to lend the entire conference some credibility.
The Trojans return few starters to its spread offense but should score points with Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year Omar Haugabook at quarterback. He’ll have his top running back and top two receivers returning with him. Larry Blakeny, in his 17th season coaching at Troy, recruits as many defensive athletes as anyone else in the conference and with so many starters returning, it’s difficult to call for a letdown season.
Troy has scheduled three visits to SEC powerhouses but last year’s Florida State and Georgia Tech games show that bettors should keep an eye on the Trojans. Four of the school’s conference wins were by eight or fewer points, but the comfort level with Tony Franklin’s offense should increase in his second year as OC.
Predicted record: 7-5
Florida Atlantic Owls
FAU hasn’t played top-level collegiate football for a long time, but it underlines head coach Howard Schnellenberger’s quality for the Owls to already be contenders in the Sun Belt. The team’s schedule is packed with five BCS-conference opponents but bettors have to concentrate on Florida Atlantic’s 5-2 ATS mark in conference play to see the positives with the Owls.
The school apparently learned a lesson from last year, when it scheduled all its BCS opponents in September and lost the four games by a combined score of 192-20. The Owls’ year-end improvement in 2006 and (somewhat) friendlier schedule bodes well for 2007.
Schnellenberger has a ton of experience this year in Boca Raton, with nearly every starter back in town in 2007 alongside the main cogs on special teams as well. If quarterback Rusty Smith picks up where he left off last year, FAU could gain bowl eligibility in spite of its schedule.
Predicted record: 5-7
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
There’s a lot to like about ULM in 2007. Every offensive starter is back in place, for example. There’s also the school’s improvement as during 2006 (3-1 in its last four games, 4-0 ATS, with a 2-point loss as 20-point underdogs to Kentucky as the only letdown). As far as Sun Belt play goes, the Warhawks’ 3-4 conference record looks better when you consider that three of the losses were by five or fewer points.
Not everything’s peachy-keen in Monroe, though. ULM loses six of its top 10 tacklers from last year and while the school’s 22.3 points allowed per game in 2006 wasn’t abominable, the yardage the Warhawks allowed early in the season was cringe-inducing.
Louisiana-Monroe opens the season against three potent non-conference opponents before visiting conference favorites Troy on the road. The Warhawks might need another late-season rally like last year’s to prevent taking a step backwards.
Predicted record: 5-7
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
Middle Tennessee was the other Sun Belt bowl team of 2006 but opens 2007 with a rough stretch. The Blue Raiders face an improved FAU squad on the road before they visit Louisville and LSU, a pair of top-10 heavyweights who’ll want to tune up their offenses before conference play starts in earnest.
The Blue Raiders lost a lot of talent from last year’s squad, which could be the death knell for a school in a conference marked by such parity. They also face three of the Sun Belt’s top teams on the road.
On the plus side, the Raiders have both of the conference’s top defensive ends, meaning their intense QB pressure from last season should continue through 2007. They also have a lot of experienced receivers and some decent talent at running back to help Joe Craddock develop in his first season as starting quarterback.
Predicted record: 4-8
Arkansas State Indians
The Indians have been the rare bit of consistency in the back-and-forth Sun Belt, winning between three and five conference games in all five seasons under head coach Steve Roberts. Their 2007 season win tally likely won’t exceed their conference win total, given the school’s decision to book a pair of BCS giants and a trio of solid C-USA teams on its schedule.
Arkansas State has as much talent in the backfield as any team in the conference, with sophomores Corey Leonard and Reggie Arnold shaping up as Sun Belt stars for the next three seasons. The Indians’ defense posted its strongest numbers under Roberts last year, but lost some talent up the gut and should be more susceptible to the run this year.
Arkansas State beat Troy last year, but also lost some lopsided games to other conference teams. The Indians, as well as their would-be backers, might be better off in 2008.
Predicted record: 4-8
Louisiana’s Ragin’ Cajuns
The University of Louisiana-Lafayette has the Sun Belt’s coolest team name, the most jacked-up crowds and a star running back in Tyrell Fenroy attracting pro scouts after a 1,197-rushing yard sophomore season.
The Cajuns also have new coordinators on offense and defense, a new starting quarterback and a lot of questions on defense.
Athletic Michael Desormeaux was favored to take over at QB once Jerry Babb used up his eligibility, but Desormeaux might not be a good enough passer to help ULL win games. Louisiana-Lafayette had an overall winning record in 2005 and 2006 combined, but there are too many holes to fill for the Cajuns not to slip another notch or two this year.
Predicted record: 4-8
Florida International Golden Panthers
Was FIU college football’s worst top-tier team in 2006? The Panthers’ 0-12 record in the nation’s weakest conference says yes. Keep in mind, however, that the Panthers lost 21-20 to South Florida and 14-10 to Maryland, a pair of bowl teams, and that FIU didn’t have a football program of any sort until 2002.
New head coach Mario Cristobal is a young, Cuban-American former Miami star, which screams “We’ll rebuild by recruiting in southern Florida,” not a bad plan considering the football talent that abounds there.
That won’t help much this year, however, with FIU taking on a hellacious schedule and installing a brand-new offense in the meantime.
Predicted record: 1-11
North Texas Mean Green
The Mean Green lose the “Best team name” prize by a couple of syllables to the Ragin’ Cajuns. They’re the clear winners, however, in the “Most interesting coaching hire” category by taking on Texan high school coaching guru Todd Dodge. North Texas was easily the Sun Belt’s worst passing team in 2006, but Dodge doesn’t care – the Mean Green will frequently line up five receivers in a wide-open spread offense.
Keeping with the awards theme, North Texas opens its season at Oklahoma, the early front-runner for “Ugliest game of the 2007 season.”
The Mean Green went 20-0 in conference play from 2002-04, but times have changed in Denton, where points have dried up like a shallow puddle under the Texan sun.
Predicted record: 1-11
One certainty is that there’s a bigger gap between the Sun Belt and the BCS conferences than with any of the other mid-majors. Sun Belt teams combined to lose all 24 games against BCS opponents in 2006 and while there were some scares, the conference’s 10-14 against-the-spread (ATS) record against the big boys leaves something to be desired as well.
Troy Trojans
Troy couldn’t have ended 2006 on a higher note stealing the conference title from Middle Tennessee with 14 points in the dying minutes of their head-to-head clash, then laying a 41-17 thumping on Rice in the New Orleans Bowl to lend the entire conference some credibility.
The Trojans return few starters to its spread offense but should score points with Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year Omar Haugabook at quarterback. He’ll have his top running back and top two receivers returning with him. Larry Blakeny, in his 17th season coaching at Troy, recruits as many defensive athletes as anyone else in the conference and with so many starters returning, it’s difficult to call for a letdown season.
Troy has scheduled three visits to SEC powerhouses but last year’s Florida State and Georgia Tech games show that bettors should keep an eye on the Trojans. Four of the school’s conference wins were by eight or fewer points, but the comfort level with Tony Franklin’s offense should increase in his second year as OC.
Predicted record: 7-5
Florida Atlantic Owls
FAU hasn’t played top-level collegiate football for a long time, but it underlines head coach Howard Schnellenberger’s quality for the Owls to already be contenders in the Sun Belt. The team’s schedule is packed with five BCS-conference opponents but bettors have to concentrate on Florida Atlantic’s 5-2 ATS mark in conference play to see the positives with the Owls.
The school apparently learned a lesson from last year, when it scheduled all its BCS opponents in September and lost the four games by a combined score of 192-20. The Owls’ year-end improvement in 2006 and (somewhat) friendlier schedule bodes well for 2007.
Schnellenberger has a ton of experience this year in Boca Raton, with nearly every starter back in town in 2007 alongside the main cogs on special teams as well. If quarterback Rusty Smith picks up where he left off last year, FAU could gain bowl eligibility in spite of its schedule.
Predicted record: 5-7
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
There’s a lot to like about ULM in 2007. Every offensive starter is back in place, for example. There’s also the school’s improvement as during 2006 (3-1 in its last four games, 4-0 ATS, with a 2-point loss as 20-point underdogs to Kentucky as the only letdown). As far as Sun Belt play goes, the Warhawks’ 3-4 conference record looks better when you consider that three of the losses were by five or fewer points.
Not everything’s peachy-keen in Monroe, though. ULM loses six of its top 10 tacklers from last year and while the school’s 22.3 points allowed per game in 2006 wasn’t abominable, the yardage the Warhawks allowed early in the season was cringe-inducing.
Louisiana-Monroe opens the season against three potent non-conference opponents before visiting conference favorites Troy on the road. The Warhawks might need another late-season rally like last year’s to prevent taking a step backwards.
Predicted record: 5-7
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
Middle Tennessee was the other Sun Belt bowl team of 2006 but opens 2007 with a rough stretch. The Blue Raiders face an improved FAU squad on the road before they visit Louisville and LSU, a pair of top-10 heavyweights who’ll want to tune up their offenses before conference play starts in earnest.
The Blue Raiders lost a lot of talent from last year’s squad, which could be the death knell for a school in a conference marked by such parity. They also face three of the Sun Belt’s top teams on the road.
On the plus side, the Raiders have both of the conference’s top defensive ends, meaning their intense QB pressure from last season should continue through 2007. They also have a lot of experienced receivers and some decent talent at running back to help Joe Craddock develop in his first season as starting quarterback.
Predicted record: 4-8
Arkansas State Indians
The Indians have been the rare bit of consistency in the back-and-forth Sun Belt, winning between three and five conference games in all five seasons under head coach Steve Roberts. Their 2007 season win tally likely won’t exceed their conference win total, given the school’s decision to book a pair of BCS giants and a trio of solid C-USA teams on its schedule.
Arkansas State has as much talent in the backfield as any team in the conference, with sophomores Corey Leonard and Reggie Arnold shaping up as Sun Belt stars for the next three seasons. The Indians’ defense posted its strongest numbers under Roberts last year, but lost some talent up the gut and should be more susceptible to the run this year.
Arkansas State beat Troy last year, but also lost some lopsided games to other conference teams. The Indians, as well as their would-be backers, might be better off in 2008.
Predicted record: 4-8
Louisiana’s Ragin’ Cajuns
The University of Louisiana-Lafayette has the Sun Belt’s coolest team name, the most jacked-up crowds and a star running back in Tyrell Fenroy attracting pro scouts after a 1,197-rushing yard sophomore season.
The Cajuns also have new coordinators on offense and defense, a new starting quarterback and a lot of questions on defense.
Athletic Michael Desormeaux was favored to take over at QB once Jerry Babb used up his eligibility, but Desormeaux might not be a good enough passer to help ULL win games. Louisiana-Lafayette had an overall winning record in 2005 and 2006 combined, but there are too many holes to fill for the Cajuns not to slip another notch or two this year.
Predicted record: 4-8
Florida International Golden Panthers
Was FIU college football’s worst top-tier team in 2006? The Panthers’ 0-12 record in the nation’s weakest conference says yes. Keep in mind, however, that the Panthers lost 21-20 to South Florida and 14-10 to Maryland, a pair of bowl teams, and that FIU didn’t have a football program of any sort until 2002.
New head coach Mario Cristobal is a young, Cuban-American former Miami star, which screams “We’ll rebuild by recruiting in southern Florida,” not a bad plan considering the football talent that abounds there.
That won’t help much this year, however, with FIU taking on a hellacious schedule and installing a brand-new offense in the meantime.
Predicted record: 1-11
North Texas Mean Green
The Mean Green lose the “Best team name” prize by a couple of syllables to the Ragin’ Cajuns. They’re the clear winners, however, in the “Most interesting coaching hire” category by taking on Texan high school coaching guru Todd Dodge. North Texas was easily the Sun Belt’s worst passing team in 2006, but Dodge doesn’t care – the Mean Green will frequently line up five receivers in a wide-open spread offense.
Keeping with the awards theme, North Texas opens its season at Oklahoma, the early front-runner for “Ugliest game of the 2007 season.”
The Mean Green went 20-0 in conference play from 2002-04, but times have changed in Denton, where points have dried up like a shallow puddle under the Texan sun.
Predicted record: 1-11
Sunday, August 12, 2007
Big Ten Preview
Michigan Wolverines
Lloyd Carr’s Wolverines are expected to go Hollywood and show off more flash on the offensive side than fans might be used to. Maybe it's because the coach has been hanging out with Russell Crowe in the offseason, but it's probably got more to do with the stable of talent on the offensive side. Traditionally, Michigan has built its championship teams on a foundation of solid defense, but this year should be different. Four defensive starters were drafted to the NFL and coordinator Ron English will have a lot to prove this year as the unit is rebuilt almost from scratch, but the secondary is solid and that should help.
More importantly, the offense will be stacked. Quarterback Chad Henne is back for his senior season and although he was outshined by another Big Ten quarterback last season, this will be Henne’s year to steal the show. He’ll have a big, nasty offensive line with Mike Hart in the backfield and Mario Manningham putting fear into the hearts of defensive backs across the Midwest. Those weapons should be enough for Michigan to outgun Ohio State and win a 43rd Big Ten title.
Predicted record: 11-1
Ohio State Buckeyes
Not every team is USC – not even Ohio State. After the departure of Troy Smith, the Buckeyes have a major personnel problem as they try to find the guy to replace their Heisman-winning quarterback. After the spring game, the front-runner looks to be junior Todd Boeckman, but not far behind is sophomore Robby Schoenhoft. Throw redshirt freshman Antonio Henton in the mix and you’ve got yourself a full-blown free-for-all behind center – and while all these guys show promise, none of them are likely to collect any hardware this year.
In the spring game, the three QBs were a combined 21-for-45.
Whoever eventually wins the job, they won’t have much veteran help with receivers Ted Ginn, Anthony Gonzalez and tailback Antonio Pittman all gone to the NFL, but prepare for the emergence of new stars like receiver Brian Robiskie and 230-pound speedster Chris Wells at tailback. The defense will again be one of the best in the conference, but after the reputation the Buckeyes have earned over the last five or six years, they’ll have to repeat last year's 10.4 points allowed per game performance to cover pointspreads this year. That will be tough to do with only five returning starters.
Predicted record: 11-1
Wisconsin Badgers
Here’s another team that lost its starting quarterback, but unlike most other schools, Wisconsin doesn’t ask its signal caller to win games with his arm. With John Stocco trying to find a home in the NFL, senior Tyler Donovan will take over behind the usual group of inhumanly large offensive linemen. He looked OK in his few appearances last year, but his main job will be to hand the ball to P.J. Hill and watch the sophomore run to what could be a Heisman Trophy year.
On defense, the Badgers will be absolutely impregnable. Last year’s unit allowed the fewest yards per game in the Big Ten and third fewest in the country, and will return largely intact. There will be a few missing pieces in the secondary from last year’s nation-leading pass efficiency defense, but a strong pass rush from the D-line will help as the new defensive backs get comfortable.
Predicted record: 10-2
Purdue Boilermakers
Faithful supporters have been waiting for this team to live up to expectations, but it’s been nothing but disappointments in West Lafayette in recent years. The Boilermakers have had the talent to contend for a Big Ten title for the last couple of seasons, but Joe Tiller hasn’t been able to motivate his troops. Defense has been the core of the problem and it might not be a good thing that nine starters return to a unit that allowed the most rushing yards in the Big Ten in 2006. However, there is plenty of talent here and bettors would be advised to watch how this defense performs early on because, as bad as they’ve been, if they ever gets it together they could surprise the conference.
Another potential breakout star could be quarterback Curtis Painter. His impressive numbers last year were obscured by the team’s six losses, but he still threw for almost 4,000 yards (fourth in the nation). He’s also got one of the best targets in the game in Dorien Bryant. If these two underrated stars play at their best this season, the offense should be able to cover the home pointspreads that stung backers last year.
Predicted record: 9-3
Penn State Nittany Lions
They don’t call this place Linebacker U for nothing. Even though Paul Posluszny isn’t anchoring the defense in University Park anymore, they have another NFL-quality linebacker to take over in Dan Conner. The secondary will also be secure with Justin King and Anthony Scirrotto ball-hawking in the shadows, but it’s the front four that will be a topic of debate until the season is underway. Big Ten teams will probably try to run the ball against this young defensive line, so much of the Nittany Lions’ success will depend on how they perform.
There’s also a considerable amount of pressure on senior quarterback Anthony Morelli, who hasn’t yet lived up to lofty expectations. He has to get over his Jeff George syndrome and stop trying to show off his arm strength on every passing play. A little patience and better decision-making will benefit the quarterback and his team.
Predicted record: 8-4
Illinois Fighting Illini
Say what you will about Ron Zook and his poor coaching record (including four wins in two seasons at Illinois) but you’ve got to think things are looking up for Illinois this fall. Zook just signed one of the best recruiting classes in the conference, which he can add to some incredible talent already on the roster.
Even though the Illini were burried under a pile of losses last season, they covered against Iowa, Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State. You can expect more of the same as Zook builds his team around Juice Williams, the quarterback who spent last season auditioning for the role of most exciting player in the nation. If the recent spring game is anything to go by, Williams showed improvement in his accuracy and also found a new deep threat in freshman wideout Arrelious Benn, who caught five passes for 145 yards. Don’t pop the corks yet, but it could be a good year in Champaign.
Predicted record: 7-5
Michigan State Spartans
This team will certainly miss quarterback Drew Stanton, who will be playing up the road with the Detroit Lions this year, but a solid offensive line can make such transitions go much more smoothly. The Spartans are in good shape up front with seniors at left tackle, left guard and center and returning starters at every spot on the front lines. A unit like that is also a big help for new head coach Mark Dantonio, who can depend on sound blocking and solid running game with three returning running backs while he works to build up the program.
However, most of the preseason previews have set Michigan State way down in the polls, one even picking them to finish as low as 10th in the Big Ten. They may be in rebuilding mode, but this is a team that has underachieved for the better part of a decade under former coach John L. Smith. Bettors should keep a close eye on pointspreads because it could be time the Spartans finally exceed a few expectations.
Predicted record: 6-6
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Most preseason polls picked the Gophers to occupy the Big Ten basement this year, but this is a team that could be primed for an improvement. After the embarrassing loss in last year’s Insight Bowl, Glen Mason was fired and Tim Brewster was brought in as head coach. The former tight-ends coach for the Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers is known for his recruiting prowess from his days at the University of Texas, but it's his enthusiasm and leadership that should benefit this team immediately.
Minnesota really wasn’t as bad as they looked on paper last year. They came out on the wrong end of a lot of close games and, aside from blowouts against Ohio State and Wisconsin, they were competitive in almost every game. The Gophers covered the spread in their last four games of the season and even though they blew a 31-point lead in their bowl game, they still covered as 8-point underdogs to Texas Tech. That could be something to build on this year.
Predicted record: 6-6
Iowa Hawkeyes
Take a good look at Iowa’s 2006 against-the-spread record and burn it into your memory. You might want to believe in this team, but you might as well light your bankroll on fire if you’re even thinking about betting on the Hawkeyes after they covered in just two games last year. Everyone expected big things from Drew Tate and Co., but the season turned into an unmitigated disaster that included losses to Indiana and Northwestern.
Forget that they put on a show in a 26-24 loss to Texas as a 9-point underdog in the Alamo Bowl. They lost Tate, they lost three of their best offensive linemen and although they’ll have what looks to be a good defense on paper, if you still think Kirk Ferentz can lead this team to victory, then you deserve to lose your money.
Predicted record: 5-7
Northwestern Wildcats
They’ve been the ugly stepsister of the Big Ten for as long as anyone can remember and despite the blip in the space-time continuum that allowed them to go 7-4 in 2005, Northwestern isn’t going to get any prettier this year.
Their offense was the worst in the conference last year and you can't hope for much more this year. Their defense is toothless. They didn’t get within ten yards of the opposing quarterback last year and this might be the slowest defense in the conference. They have some size up front, which might help, but with back-to-back games against Ohio State and Michigan to start their Big Ten schedule, their season might be over before it really gets started.
Predicted record: 4-8
Indiana Hoosiers
Terry Hoeppner brought hope to Indiana when he arrived two years ago. He led the team to upset wins over Michigan Sate (+19) and Iowa (+6 ½) last year and things were supposed to continue to improve this year. Many bettors had the Hoosiers on their radars until the head coach’s health went south and kept him from his duties, a scenario that will doubtlessly hurt the team’s chances this year.
Hoeppner had two brain surgeries over the last two months to remove tumors and it is still uncertain when he’ll return to Bloomington. It will be difficult for the Hoosiers to develop the consistency needed to turn a few shocking upsets into a winning season without their head coach at the helm. There is some great talent on the team – not the least of which is quarterback Kellen Lewis – but without direction and leadership, this team is likely to slide back into the abyss it's been in for the last decade.
Predicted record: 4-8
Wednesday, August 1, 2007
Why USC will not win the Championship
Last year about this time an article appeared from this very site that said Ohio State would not be national champions. While it took to the BCS title game in Glendale, AZ for this prediction to become true, it nevertheless did as Florida walked away with the hardware. The conviction I had at that time is not quite as strong for a variety of reasons, nevertheless Pete Carroll’s Trojans will be in BCS game, but like Matt Leinart before him, quarterback John David Booty will come up empty in his senior season.
USC has produced three Heisman Trophy winners in the past five seasons and Booty is among the favorites to be added to that list. The first thing Booty must overcome is throwing to talented yet inexperienced receivers. Junior Patrick Turner has the stuff to be a big time performer and at 6’5 230, fits a recent mold of super-sized wide receivers that run like deer’s for USC. The others at this position will have to emerge. Maybe it was lack of playing time last season, but Booty at times made terrible reads in the flat and had balls picked off or knocked down. The offense was adjusted to more slants and downfield throws and he looked more comfortable. In the UCLA loss, the pressure clearly was a deterrent as he forced throws. Pac-10 coaches will be much wiser about bringing heat then Michigan was in the Rose Bowl.
If championships are truly won on defense, then this article is going to look awfully foolish in early January. Coach Carroll in his seventh season may have his most accomplished defense in his tenure. Track guys with big muscles and bad attitudes are all over the two deep roster of the defense. Six seniors are expected to be starters, led by DE Lawrence Jackson, NT Sedrick Ellis and WLB Keith Rivers. The secondary was considered a weakness a year ago, however with all four starters returning plus Josh Pinkard, who was starter in 2005 and missed last year due to injury; this is an area of strength that fits perfectly in this puzzle. In 2006 the defense forced just 22 turnovers, ending a streak of six seasons under Carroll of double digit turnover margin.
Sportsbook.com has USC listed as top choice at 5-2 to win BCS title and the schedule is where the tide turns. Many a great team has been undone playing too many quality teams week after week. Players are human and can not be “up” for every game. It was the immortal Ohio State head coach Woody Hayes who believed twice a team can be sky high, three to four times can win on talent alone and twice your team is not going to have it emotionally and are imminently beatable during a season. Starting the middle of September at Nebraska will be the first test. This is a talented team with enough weapons on both sides of the ball. Coach Bill Callahan now has the offense fully operational with his type of players and the defense is very good with DC Kevin Cosgrove blitzing schemes that take no prisoners. Making Booty uncertain could provide opportunity for home underdog Cornhuskers. The other non-conference game of note is at Notre Dame. This is a rebuilding year for the Irish, however history has shown top ranked teams in South Bend do not always leave that way.
The Pac-10 crowns a true league championship as every team plays every other since the addition of 12th game to regular season. Nobody is thinking the Men of Troy will lose at Memorial Coliseum in conference play with five home games against the lesser squads in the league except for UCLA. The last three road games draw special attention and will be played in under a month. Starting the last Saturday in October in Eugene against Oregon will be a severe test. This is a veteran squad looking for redemption from a season ago and has two signal callers that could cause problems. Two weeks later the Cal Bears lay in wait hoping to knock off the Trojans. Offensively, California can run with USC, it just a matter if the defense can find a cohesive unit. Next up is a Thanksgiving night game in the desert against Arizona State. The Sun Devils offense will still score points and Dennis Erickson may not have a lot of friends in Idaho, but he can coach a team up for a big game. Three dangerous landmines late in the season could blow out the Trojans chances.
This still might be the best team in the country, nevertheless in an offensive conference with so many tough road games it is a little too much to ask the 2007 USC Trojans to take another championship trophy.
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