What Polls mean to Bettors

Look into the polls before you wager



The preseason rankings are out and according to the soothsayers and prognosticators over at The Associated Press offices, the BCS might as well call FedEx and ship their crystal football off to L.A. right now.




The USC Trojans are ranked No. 1 in the AP preseason poll for the third time in the last four years. There’s so much hype over this team, one overzealous Pac-10 coach even went so far as to call this edition of the Trojans, “the best college football team of all time.”

Wow. No wonder the Vegas bookmakers deemed it necessary to take 45 points from USC in their season-opener against the Idaho Vandals.

Well, it might also have something to do with the ugly memory of the Vandals’ 46-point loss to the Washington State Cougars – a Pac-10 team with decidedly less firepower than Southern Cal – in the early days of last season.

But we’ve heard the hype before. The last time the Trojans were ranked No. 1 (2005) they finished the season undefeated, but at the sportsbook, they were only a .500 team, going 6-6 against the spread (ATS) that year.



Which begs the question: should bettors pay any attention to all the hubbub and hoopla that comes with the buildup to the NCAA football season?

Judging by the results in recent years the answer is: yes and no.

How’s that for convoluted? If you take a look at the historical preseason rankings and the correlating ATS results, it might make more sense.

Of course, you can’t paint every team that has been selected No. 1 in the last 10 preseason polls with the same brush. Every team is different and not all will live up to the great expectations or prove capable of dealing with the constant pressure of being on top of the NCAA mountain, but you can use the results as a guide as to how the oddsmakers treat the No. 1 team.

The top ranking means a big rep and usually – big handicaps.

As you can see from the results, that doesn’t always pose a problem for these squads. Last year the Ohio State Buckeyes went 9-3 ATS and made a pile of money for some of their backers, despite double-digit pointspreads almost every week.

But bettors must be careful in such situations because over the last 10 years, five top-ranked preseason favorites have posted losing seasons against the spread. Overall, these highly touted teams have gone 63-60 ATS since the 1997-1998 season, which isn’t exactly convincing one way or the other.

This year’s Trojans will have their work cut out for them, especially if oddsmakers continue to post five, six and even seven-touchdown handicaps on their games.

The last two years in which the Trojans were No. 1 on the preseason AP Poll, the team went on to a combined 14-12 ATS record, but on both occasions, they did not have good starts to the season at the sportsbook. In 2004 (a season in which the USC racked up big money with an 8-5 ATS record) they went 2-3 versus the number in their first five games. The next year, they barely managed to earn a profitable start with a 3-2 start to the season.

Overall, No. 1 preseason teams have gone 27-22 in their opening stretch of the schedule over the last 10 years.

If you’re looking for a better historical bet, you might want to look at the LSU Tigers this year because the No. 2 preseason team has gone a combined 68-56 over the last 10 years.

The No. 3 team has been on the other end of the spectrum, disappointing supporters with a 49-70-1 showing over the last decade. Bettors who put any weight on historical statistics will avoid the West Virginia Mountaineers this year because only two No. 3 preseason selections have finished with a better than .500 ATS season over the last decade.