Big Ten Preview

Michigan Wolverines

Lloyd Carr’s Wolverines are expected to go Hollywood and show off more flash on the offensive side than fans might be used to. Maybe it's because the coach has been hanging out with Russell Crowe in the offseason, but it's probably got more to do with the stable of talent on the offensive side. Traditionally, Michigan has built its championship teams on a foundation of solid defense, but this year should be different. Four defensive starters were drafted to the NFL and coordinator Ron English will have a lot to prove this year as the unit is rebuilt almost from scratch, but the secondary is solid and that should help.
More importantly, the offense will be stacked. Quarterback Chad Henne is back for his senior season and although he was outshined by another Big Ten quarterback last season, this will be Henne’s year to steal the show. He’ll have a big, nasty offensive line with Mike Hart in the backfield and Mario Manningham putting fear into the hearts of defensive backs across the Midwest. Those weapons should be enough for Michigan to outgun Ohio State and win a 43rd Big Ten title.
Predicted record: 11-1

Ohio State Buckeyes
Not every team is USC – not even Ohio State. After the departure of Troy Smith, the Buckeyes have a major personnel problem as they try to find the guy to replace their Heisman-winning quarterback. After the spring game, the front-runner looks to be junior Todd Boeckman, but not far behind is sophomore Robby Schoenhoft. Throw redshirt freshman Antonio Henton in the mix and you’ve got yourself a full-blown free-for-all behind center – and while all these guys show promise, none of them are likely to collect any hardware this year.
In the spring game, the three QBs were a combined 21-for-45.
Whoever eventually wins the job, they won’t have much veteran help with receivers Ted Ginn, Anthony Gonzalez and tailback Antonio Pittman all gone to the NFL, but prepare for the emergence of new stars like receiver Brian Robiskie and 230-pound speedster Chris Wells at tailback. The defense will again be one of the best in the conference, but after the reputation the Buckeyes have earned over the last five or six years, they’ll have to repeat last year's 10.4 points allowed per game performance to cover pointspreads this year. That will be tough to do with only five returning starters.
Predicted record: 11-1

Wisconsin Badgers
Here’s another team that lost its starting quarterback, but unlike most other schools, Wisconsin doesn’t ask its signal caller to win games with his arm. With John Stocco trying to find a home in the NFL, senior Tyler Donovan will take over behind the usual group of inhumanly large offensive linemen. He looked OK in his few appearances last year, but his main job will be to hand the ball to P.J. Hill and watch the sophomore run to what could be a Heisman Trophy year.
On defense, the Badgers will be absolutely impregnable. Last year’s unit allowed the fewest yards per game in the Big Ten and third fewest in the country, and will return largely intact. There will be a few missing pieces in the secondary from last year’s nation-leading pass efficiency defense, but a strong pass rush from the D-line will help as the new defensive backs get comfortable.
Predicted record: 10-2

Purdue Boilermakers
Faithful supporters have been waiting for this team to live up to expectations, but it’s been nothing but disappointments in West Lafayette in recent years. The Boilermakers have had the talent to contend for a Big Ten title for the last couple of seasons, but Joe Tiller hasn’t been able to motivate his troops. Defense has been the core of the problem and it might not be a good thing that nine starters return to a unit that allowed the most rushing yards in the Big Ten in 2006. However, there is plenty of talent here and bettors would be advised to watch how this defense performs early on because, as bad as they’ve been, if they ever gets it together they could surprise the conference.
Another potential breakout star could be quarterback Curtis Painter. His impressive numbers last year were obscured by the team’s six losses, but he still threw for almost 4,000 yards (fourth in the nation). He’s also got one of the best targets in the game in Dorien Bryant. If these two underrated stars play at their best this season, the offense should be able to cover the home pointspreads that stung backers last year.
Predicted record: 9-3

Penn State Nittany Lions
They don’t call this place Linebacker U for nothing. Even though Paul Posluszny isn’t anchoring the defense in University Park anymore, they have another NFL-quality linebacker to take over in Dan Conner. The secondary will also be secure with Justin King and Anthony Scirrotto ball-hawking in the shadows, but it’s the front four that will be a topic of debate until the season is underway. Big Ten teams will probably try to run the ball against this young defensive line, so much of the Nittany Lions’ success will depend on how they perform.
There’s also a considerable amount of pressure on senior quarterback Anthony Morelli, who hasn’t yet lived up to lofty expectations. He has to get over his Jeff George syndrome and stop trying to show off his arm strength on every passing play. A little patience and better decision-making will benefit the quarterback and his team.
Predicted record: 8-4

Illinois Fighting Illini
Say what you will about Ron Zook and his poor coaching record (including four wins in two seasons at Illinois) but you’ve got to think things are looking up for Illinois this fall. Zook just signed one of the best recruiting classes in the conference, which he can add to some incredible talent already on the roster.
Even though the Illini were burried under a pile of losses last season, they covered against Iowa, Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State. You can expect more of the same as Zook builds his team around Juice Williams, the quarterback who spent last season auditioning for the role of most exciting player in the nation. If the recent spring game is anything to go by, Williams showed improvement in his accuracy and also found a new deep threat in freshman wideout Arrelious Benn, who caught five passes for 145 yards. Don’t pop the corks yet, but it could be a good year in Champaign.
Predicted record: 7-5


Michigan State Spartans
This team will certainly miss quarterback Drew Stanton, who will be playing up the road with the Detroit Lions this year, but a solid offensive line can make such transitions go much more smoothly. The Spartans are in good shape up front with seniors at left tackle, left guard and center and returning starters at every spot on the front lines. A unit like that is also a big help for new head coach Mark Dantonio, who can depend on sound blocking and solid running game with three returning running backs while he works to build up the program.
However, most of the preseason previews have set Michigan State way down in the polls, one even picking them to finish as low as 10th in the Big Ten. They may be in rebuilding mode, but this is a team that has underachieved for the better part of a decade under former coach John L. Smith. Bettors should keep a close eye on pointspreads because it could be time the Spartans finally exceed a few expectations.
Predicted record: 6-6


Minnesota Golden Gophers
Most preseason polls picked the Gophers to occupy the Big Ten basement this year, but this is a team that could be primed for an improvement. After the embarrassing loss in last year’s Insight Bowl, Glen Mason was fired and Tim Brewster was brought in as head coach. The former tight-ends coach for the Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers is known for his recruiting prowess from his days at the University of Texas, but it's his enthusiasm and leadership that should benefit this team immediately.
Minnesota really wasn’t as bad as they looked on paper last year. They came out on the wrong end of a lot of close games and, aside from blowouts against Ohio State and Wisconsin, they were competitive in almost every game. The Gophers covered the spread in their last four games of the season and even though they blew a 31-point lead in their bowl game, they still covered as 8-point underdogs to Texas Tech. That could be something to build on this year.
Predicted record: 6-6

Iowa Hawkeyes
Take a good look at Iowa’s 2006 against-the-spread record and burn it into your memory. You might want to believe in this team, but you might as well light your bankroll on fire if you’re even thinking about betting on the Hawkeyes after they covered in just two games last year. Everyone expected big things from Drew Tate and Co., but the season turned into an unmitigated disaster that included losses to Indiana and Northwestern.
Forget that they put on a show in a 26-24 loss to Texas as a 9-point underdog in the Alamo Bowl. They lost Tate, they lost three of their best offensive linemen and although they’ll have what looks to be a good defense on paper, if you still think Kirk Ferentz can lead this team to victory, then you deserve to lose your money.
Predicted record: 5-7

Northwestern Wildcats
They’ve been the ugly stepsister of the Big Ten for as long as anyone can remember and despite the blip in the space-time continuum that allowed them to go 7-4 in 2005, Northwestern isn’t going to get any prettier this year.
Their offense was the worst in the conference last year and you can't hope for much more this year. Their defense is toothless. They didn’t get within ten yards of the opposing quarterback last year and this might be the slowest defense in the conference. They have some size up front, which might help, but with back-to-back games against Ohio State and Michigan to start their Big Ten schedule, their season might be over before it really gets started.
Predicted record: 4-8


Indiana Hoosiers
Terry Hoeppner brought hope to Indiana when he arrived two years ago. He led the team to upset wins over Michigan Sate (+19) and Iowa (+6 ½) last year and things were supposed to continue to improve this year. Many bettors had the Hoosiers on their radars until the head coach’s health went south and kept him from his duties, a scenario that will doubtlessly hurt the team’s chances this year.
Hoeppner had two brain surgeries over the last two months to remove tumors and it is still uncertain when he’ll return to Bloomington. It will be difficult for the Hoosiers to develop the consistency needed to turn a few shocking upsets into a winning season without their head coach at the helm. There is some great talent on the team – not the least of which is quarterback Kellen Lewis – but without direction and leadership, this team is likely to slide back into the abyss it's been in for the last decade.
Predicted record: 4-8