Why USC will not win the Championship

Last year about this time an article appeared from this very site that said Ohio State would not be national champions. While it took to the BCS title game in Glendale, AZ for this prediction to become true, it nevertheless did as Florida walked away with the hardware. The conviction I had at that time is not quite as strong for a variety of reasons, nevertheless Pete Carroll’s Trojans will be in BCS game, but like Matt Leinart before him, quarterback John David Booty will come up empty in his senior season.

USC has produced three Heisman Trophy winners in the past five seasons and Booty is among the favorites to be added to that list. The first thing Booty must overcome is throwing to talented yet inexperienced receivers. Junior Patrick Turner has the stuff to be a big time performer and at 6’5 230, fits a recent mold of super-sized wide receivers that run like deer’s for USC. The others at this position will have to emerge. Maybe it was lack of playing time last season, but Booty at times made terrible reads in the flat and had balls picked off or knocked down. The offense was adjusted to more slants and downfield throws and he looked more comfortable. In the UCLA loss, the pressure clearly was a deterrent as he forced throws. Pac-10 coaches will be much wiser about bringing heat then Michigan was in the Rose Bowl.
If championships are truly won on defense, then this article is going to look awfully foolish in early January. Coach Carroll in his seventh season may have his most accomplished defense in his tenure. Track guys with big muscles and bad attitudes are all over the two deep roster of the defense. Six seniors are expected to be starters, led by DE Lawrence Jackson, NT Sedrick Ellis and WLB Keith Rivers. The secondary was considered a weakness a year ago, however with all four starters returning plus Josh Pinkard, who was starter in 2005 and missed last year due to injury; this is an area of strength that fits perfectly in this puzzle. In 2006 the defense forced just 22 turnovers, ending a streak of six seasons under Carroll of double digit turnover margin.
Sportsbook.com has USC listed as top choice at 5-2 to win BCS title and the schedule is where the tide turns. Many a great team has been undone playing too many quality teams week after week. Players are human and can not be “up” for every game. It was the immortal Ohio State head coach Woody Hayes who believed twice a team can be sky high, three to four times can win on talent alone and twice your team is not going to have it emotionally and are imminently beatable during a season. Starting the middle of September at Nebraska will be the first test. This is a talented team with enough weapons on both sides of the ball. Coach Bill Callahan now has the offense fully operational with his type of players and the defense is very good with DC Kevin Cosgrove blitzing schemes that take no prisoners. Making Booty uncertain could provide opportunity for home underdog Cornhuskers. The other non-conference game of note is at Notre Dame. This is a rebuilding year for the Irish, however history has shown top ranked teams in South Bend do not always leave that way.


The Pac-10 crowns a true league championship as every team plays every other since the addition of 12th game to regular season. Nobody is thinking the Men of Troy will lose at Memorial Coliseum in conference play with five home games against the lesser squads in the league except for UCLA. The last three road games draw special attention and will be played in under a month. Starting the last Saturday in October in Eugene against Oregon will be a severe test. This is a veteran squad looking for redemption from a season ago and has two signal callers that could cause problems. Two weeks later the Cal Bears lay in wait hoping to knock off the Trojans. Offensively, California can run with USC, it just a matter if the defense can find a cohesive unit. Next up is a Thanksgiving night game in the desert against Arizona State. The Sun Devils offense will still score points and Dennis Erickson may not have a lot of friends in Idaho, but he can coach a team up for a big game. Three dangerous landmines late in the season could blow out the Trojans chances.


This still might be the best team in the country, nevertheless in an offensive conference with so many tough road games it is a little too much to ask the 2007 USC Trojans to take another championship trophy.