Sun Belt Betting Preview

It’s difficult to figure out the Sun Belt – six of its eight schools (soon to be nine, with Western Kentucky making a slow transition into top-flight collegiate football) have shared the conference’s best record at least once over the last three seasons.

One certainty is that there’s a bigger gap between the Sun Belt and the BCS conferences than with any of the other mid-majors. Sun Belt teams combined to lose all 24 games against BCS opponents in 2006 and while there were some scares, the conference’s 10-14 against-the-spread (ATS) record against the big boys leaves something to be desired as well.




Troy Trojans

Troy couldn’t have ended 2006 on a higher note stealing the conference title from Middle Tennessee with 14 points in the dying minutes of their head-to-head clash, then laying a 41-17 thumping on Rice in the New Orleans Bowl to lend the entire conference some credibility.

The Trojans return few starters to its spread offense but should score points with Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year Omar Haugabook at quarterback. He’ll have his top running back and top two receivers returning with him. Larry Blakeny, in his 17th season coaching at Troy, recruits as many defensive athletes as anyone else in the conference and with so many starters returning, it’s difficult to call for a letdown season.

Troy has scheduled three visits to SEC powerhouses but last year’s Florida State and Georgia Tech games show that bettors should keep an eye on the Trojans. Four of the school’s conference wins were by eight or fewer points, but the comfort level with Tony Franklin’s offense should increase in his second year as OC.

Predicted record: 7-5

Florida Atlantic Owls

FAU hasn’t played top-level collegiate football for a long time, but it underlines head coach Howard Schnellenberger’s quality for the Owls to already be contenders in the Sun Belt. The team’s schedule is packed with five BCS-conference opponents but bettors have to concentrate on Florida Atlantic’s 5-2 ATS mark in conference play to see the positives with the Owls.

The school apparently learned a lesson from last year, when it scheduled all its BCS opponents in September and lost the four games by a combined score of 192-20. The Owls’ year-end improvement in 2006 and (somewhat) friendlier schedule bodes well for 2007.

Schnellenberger has a ton of experience this year in Boca Raton, with nearly every starter back in town in 2007 alongside the main cogs on special teams as well. If quarterback Rusty Smith picks up where he left off last year, FAU could gain bowl eligibility in spite of its schedule.

Predicted record: 5-7

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

There’s a lot to like about ULM in 2007. Every offensive starter is back in place, for example. There’s also the school’s improvement as during 2006 (3-1 in its last four games, 4-0 ATS, with a 2-point loss as 20-point underdogs to Kentucky as the only letdown). As far as Sun Belt play goes, the Warhawks’ 3-4 conference record looks better when you consider that three of the losses were by five or fewer points.

Not everything’s peachy-keen in Monroe, though. ULM loses six of its top 10 tacklers from last year and while the school’s 22.3 points allowed per game in 2006 wasn’t abominable, the yardage the Warhawks allowed early in the season was cringe-inducing.

Louisiana-Monroe opens the season against three potent non-conference opponents before visiting conference favorites Troy on the road. The Warhawks might need another late-season rally like last year’s to prevent taking a step backwards.

Predicted record: 5-7

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders

Middle Tennessee was the other Sun Belt bowl team of 2006 but opens 2007 with a rough stretch. The Blue Raiders face an improved FAU squad on the road before they visit Louisville and LSU, a pair of top-10 heavyweights who’ll want to tune up their offenses before conference play starts in earnest.

The Blue Raiders lost a lot of talent from last year’s squad, which could be the death knell for a school in a conference marked by such parity. They also face three of the Sun Belt’s top teams on the road.

On the plus side, the Raiders have both of the conference’s top defensive ends, meaning their intense QB pressure from last season should continue through 2007. They also have a lot of experienced receivers and some decent talent at running back to help Joe Craddock develop in his first season as starting quarterback.

Predicted record: 4-8



Arkansas State Indians

The Indians have been the rare bit of consistency in the back-and-forth Sun Belt, winning between three and five conference games in all five seasons under head coach Steve Roberts. Their 2007 season win tally likely won’t exceed their conference win total, given the school’s decision to book a pair of BCS giants and a trio of solid C-USA teams on its schedule.

Arkansas State has as much talent in the backfield as any team in the conference, with sophomores Corey Leonard and Reggie Arnold shaping up as Sun Belt stars for the next three seasons. The Indians’ defense posted its strongest numbers under Roberts last year, but lost some talent up the gut and should be more susceptible to the run this year.

Arkansas State beat Troy last year, but also lost some lopsided games to other conference teams. The Indians, as well as their would-be backers, might be better off in 2008.

Predicted record: 4-8

Louisiana’s Ragin’ Cajuns

The University of Louisiana-Lafayette has the Sun Belt’s coolest team name, the most jacked-up crowds and a star running back in Tyrell Fenroy attracting pro scouts after a 1,197-rushing yard sophomore season.

The Cajuns also have new coordinators on offense and defense, a new starting quarterback and a lot of questions on defense.

Athletic Michael Desormeaux was favored to take over at QB once Jerry Babb used up his eligibility, but Desormeaux might not be a good enough passer to help ULL win games. Louisiana-Lafayette had an overall winning record in 2005 and 2006 combined, but there are too many holes to fill for the Cajuns not to slip another notch or two this year.

Predicted record: 4-8

Florida International Golden Panthers

Was FIU college football’s worst top-tier team in 2006? The Panthers’ 0-12 record in the nation’s weakest conference says yes. Keep in mind, however, that the Panthers lost 21-20 to South Florida and 14-10 to Maryland, a pair of bowl teams, and that FIU didn’t have a football program of any sort until 2002.

New head coach Mario Cristobal is a young, Cuban-American former Miami star, which screams “We’ll rebuild by recruiting in southern Florida,” not a bad plan considering the football talent that abounds there.

That won’t help much this year, however, with FIU taking on a hellacious schedule and installing a brand-new offense in the meantime.

Predicted record: 1-11

North Texas Mean Green

The Mean Green lose the “Best team name” prize by a couple of syllables to the Ragin’ Cajuns. They’re the clear winners, however, in the “Most interesting coaching hire” category by taking on Texan high school coaching guru Todd Dodge. North Texas was easily the Sun Belt’s worst passing team in 2006, but Dodge doesn’t care – the Mean Green will frequently line up five receivers in a wide-open spread offense.

Keeping with the awards theme, North Texas opens its season at Oklahoma, the early front-runner for “Ugliest game of the 2007 season.”

The Mean Green went 20-0 in conference play from 2002-04, but times have changed in Denton, where points have dried up like a shallow puddle under the Texan sun.

Predicted record: 1-11