Kansas St. Vs Louisville

Wednesday Night Football
Kansas St. Vs louisville
I see folks everywhere taking Kansas St as road chalk to take down the Louisville Cardinals at home. (Consensus has 68% on the Cats) Most of the folks that have the cats are either basing it on the offense or the problems that Louisville had with Kentucky in week one. If you look at the loss to Kentucky but ignore the win over Tennessee Tech because they are an inferior opponent than how can you quantify either of the Cats win against North Texas and Montana St.

Because of this lopsided look the books have been able to install the Cats as 4 point road chalks. I think they have made a mistake and think that Louisville should be the four point home chalk.

Louisville struggled against Kentucky because of pressure on the QB Hunter Cantwell, but the Cats employ a three defender front on the DL and try to get through the front line with speed which works much better on turf. The help that small DL by bringing in blitzes which is something that will take away from the defensive backfield and give time for Cantwell to pick them apart in the short game.

Louisville’s defense is much improved especially against the ground game where they have done very well which means that K St. will have to rely on the pass. That is not bad news as Josh Freeman is a great QB for the cats. The problem is Louisville’s defense can make it a one dimensional offense. This will allow them to focus on the passing game and set it up with defense.

The big match up is that offensive line against the defensive front of K St. The Cardinals will out weigh them by about 50 pounds per person giving this offense time to do its thing.

Kansas St is on the road giving points to a BCS team when they have not proven their worth against anyone and give away size on the front line.

Kansas St is 0-7 in the last 7 as a road chalk.
Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
Cardinals are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Wildcats are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games.
Wildcats are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Louisville is 7-0 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last three seasons
The Wildcats are only 7-19 ATS in initial road game of the season

Cardinals +4